This Thursday the European Central Bank meeting takes place on the Mediterranean island of Malta, there is strong belief that there will be hints at further fresh stimulus to ward off the threat of deflation in the press conference following the Governing Council congress at 14:30CET
Last month Eurozone inflation fell below 0% to -0.1% this is the first time since March. Presently the ECB is currently committed to buying €60bn of government and corporate bonds each month until September 2016. But as Ewald Nowotny, an ECB Policymaker, has been quoted as saying it is “quite obvious” that additional instruments would be needed, as the ECB is “clearly missing” its inflation target. It is not if, but when.
What tools are available to the ECB? The obvious answer is it could boost QE to €80bn a month and/or further extended the programme beyond next September 2016.
Will they announce further ECB Stimulus? We believe there will be hints but no action.
One of the consequences of the Fed delaying ‘lift off’ has been a strengthening €, this is an unwelcome development adding deflationary pressure.
We believe the tone to this meeting will be dovish a weakening currency is the other unquantifiable tool that can help the Eurozone
Good Luck
Anish Lal
Atom8 Financial Services LLP www.atom8.com
No comments:
Post a Comment