Friday, 7 August 2015

Event - The "Atomic" August NFP - What to expect?

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Today at 13.30 BST we have a plethora of data from the US, as we are all aware the Fed is “Data Dependent”.

13.30     Non-Farm Payrolls          
Average Hourly earnings
Unemployment Rate
Labor Force participant rate

The Non-Farm Payroll number will be where we look first. The market consensus is 225k. The barometer appears to be 200k with a weaker number suggesting that a rate rise in September will be off the table, whilst a strong number will make the voting members of the Federal Reserve do some soul searching.

Fed Funds has 19 basis points priced into the September Contract, 32 basis points priced in December Contract and a year from now it has 70 basis points,will this change?

The minutes of the last meeting teased the market with the word ‘some’, stating that the FED would like to see “some improvements” in data before raising rates
Dennis Lockhart, the Atlanta Fed President, a dove, said that it would take a significant deterioration in the data not to move in September.



We eagerly await the data dependent sequence…

Good Luck

Anish S. Lal @anish8fx
FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP
2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK
T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com


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