Ladies and Gentlemen,
A new month, a new quarter and the first event risk is upon
us.
Tomorrow at 13:30 BST we get the US Non-Farm Payrolls.
At the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture at the University of
Massachusetts on 24th September Janet Yellen said “Most of my
colleagues and I anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to raise the
target range for the federal funds rate sometime later this year”. There are
only 2 meeting left, the next FOMC decision is 28th October and then the final
meeting of year for the open markets committee takes place on 16th
December.
It is well known that the Federal Reserve do not like to
surprise the market, Larry Summers former Secretary of Treasury, stated in his
blog that in the last 20 years the Fed has never tightened without guiding the
futures market to at least a 70 percent chance of a tightening, presently there
is an 84% expectation of a December hike. Will tomorrows’ data change the
market view?
Bloomberg have surveyed 93 economists and the estimates vary
from a lowest approximation of 149,000 and a highest evaluation of 255,000
The average is 202,000 whilst the median is 200,000.
In August 173,000 jobs were added, down from 245,000 in
July, whilst the unemployment rate fell to 5.1%
A strong number and I assume that we will see further
confidence in the $ trade and whilst the commodity markets are under pressure,
prefer to express this view against the commodity currencies.
Good Luck
Anish S. Lal @anish8fx
FX & Precious Metals, Atom8
Financial Services LLP
2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser
Road, London W14 9EQ, UK
Risk Warning
Trading on margin (spread betting,
CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all
investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as
for you. Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully
consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk
appetite. You could lose more than your initial investment and should not
trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all
the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an
independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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