Showing posts with label UK. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UK. Show all posts

Friday, 24 June 2016

#Brexit - A Genuine Clusterfuck! What will happen?


137 billion pounds was wiped off the value of the UK stockmarket in the first nine minutes of trading. That's the equivalent of nine years EU membership fees.

The falling value of the pound will cause the cost of imports to rise, making things more expensive on the high street.

The poorer parts of Britain have used the referendum as a vote on globalisation: they've been shafted by continuous British governments since 1979, governments who have off-shored their jobs, used immigration to lower their wages and deregulated banks to provide cheap credit to fund their consumption.

None of this will change outside of the EU.

The problem always was, is and will be that domestic UK politicians do not represent the interests of the traditional working class, they represent international finance. And under Johnson and Gove they still will.

The UK is an international CAPITALIST economy, it needs inward investment to pay for its current account deficit (debt), which is massive. 50% of our inward investment came from the EU in 2015. Low wages - yes even with George Osborne's supposed 'living wage' - help to attract this investment. Immigration is a structural part of the UK economy and this is not going to change any time soon. Even Farage said he would use migrants from the Commonwealth (lol - that basically ended in 1956 @Suez), rather than the EU.

Immigration will not stop, but our economy will probably take a huge battering:

The UK economy is 79% services, services are harder to trade than manufactured goods because of the fact that people are integral to services, you can't just ship them overseas like a bag of spanners. The UK had a free 'passport' to trade services in the EU.

The City of London (services) generates 10% of the UK's total GDP. Roughly a quarter of the UK’s financial sector business involves the EU's Single Market, equivalent to 2 per cent of gross domestic product. And balanced on top is a wider array of professional services. (Financial Times).

Plus: developed countries buy more services than developing countries who are at a different stage in their economic development. The EU is made up of some of the richest developed countries on the planet. The entire structural configuration of our economy favours services sold to developed countries and we just risked putting the kibosh on that. Smart move.

There's more.

Free trade agreements take years to negotiate, and the UK will be screaming out for FTAs to ensure trade based on best possible terms, rather than the default WTO position - yes that's right, even on leaving the EU there are other international organisations we have to conform to, we call this the modern world - Under WTO there are 10% import tariffs on automotive manufacturing, one of the last bastions of manufacturing in the UK. Without an FTA all UK automotive exports will see a 10% tariff slapped on them. Let that sink in for a moment. A UK crying out for FTAs will give negotiating partners leverage, the UK does not have the upperhand here.

And as for an EU-UK FTA, the UK is 5% of global GDP (2015), the EU 26%, who do you think will have the upperhand in those negotiations? As for us importing more from the EU than we export, we need those goods, for our standard of living and for our domestic supply chains. The fact that we import so much is not automatically something that works in our favour! Trade is not a zero sum game.

And when all these British citizens fund out that they've been lied to over the next few years they're going to be absolutely furious. And who do you think they will vote for then? Angry men with easy answers and tiny little moustaches maybe? I'm pretty sure it won't be Corbyn with his mystical magical 1970s timemachine.

This is a genuine clusterfuck. Cameron has risked the union of the Kingdom - Northern Ireland voted remain 56%, Scotland 62% - and the wider EU in trying to appease to racists, the angry and the ignorant. This is not the behaviour of a statesman. It is the behaviour of an opportunist and a coward. His name will go down in history as the man who accidentally broke up Britain.

Hold on to your bowler hats, its about to get bumpy.

Wednesday, 16 March 2016

The UK Budget 16 March 2016 12:30 GMT

UK Budget... What to expect? 


Scheduled for 12:30 GMT, this will be Chancellor George Osborne’s eighth budget. Having set himself a target of achieving a surplus by 2019-20 , sluggish growth since November could mean more spending cuts and tax rises. His statement comes with two months to go before the UK votes on its EU membership. The government is campaigning to remain in the EU, and the chancellor will be keen to avoid antagonizing either side in the debate with his announcements.

WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW

A fresh round of government spending cuts
Osborne warned over the weekend that a slowdown in global growth would lead to further fiscal tightening, saying he would use the Budget to slash 50p in every £100 the government spends by the end of the decade, or around £4bn, from the Treasury’s balance sheet.

More than £300m in funding for Crossrail 2 and HS3.
Osborne will use the Budget to commit to more than £300m in new infrastructure spending, including £80m to fund the development of plans for Crossrail 2 and £60m to draw up plans to introduce high-speed rail in the north. In a major move for London transport, the chancellor will also say for the first time that Crossrail 2 is a “priority scheme” and commit to introduce a Crossrail 2 Bill by the end of the parliament.

A green light for driverless cars on Britain’s motorways
The chancellor is due to announce the first trials of driverless cars on British motorways and vow to spend £15m creating a “Connected Corridor” from London to Dover to help driverless cars communicate wirelessly with existing infrastructure.

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN

Another hike in the insurance premium tax (IPT)
The AA warned over the weekend that the chancellor is considering raising the basic rate of insurance premium tax (IPT) from 9.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent. Just last November, Osborne increased the basic rate of IPT from 6 to 9.5 per cent – meaning that the stealth tax on more than 50m motor, home, medical and pet insurance premiums could be set to double in less than six months.

The first increase in fuel duty in five years
Osborne froze fuel duty in 2011, and given persistently low oil prices and the large amount an increase in the tax could net for the Treasury – an extra 2p of duty would bring in about £1bn – many believe the chancellor may announce a rise in the Budget. But the move would prove unpopular, with backbencher MPs from multiple parties opposing any increase.

An income tax break for middle and higher earners
Osborne is reportedly looking at increasing the amount people have to earn before they start paying the higher 40p tax rate to £43,000, from the current threshold of £42,385. The chancellor could also slash the top rate of tax from 45p to 40p, which would benefit people earning more than £150,000 a year.

Higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and other vices

Brewers are betting on another 1p to be taken off beer duty, but Osborne is said to be looking at increasing taxes on alcohol, as well as imposing a minimum tax on cigarettes.