"Hold your Oil Shorts" Calls from the Floor

Ladies & Gentlemen 

As our eyes turn to the weekend - the volatile weekly Oil market draws to a close after a neat 10% slide on the back of further global supply gluts. 

From my post labelled "Crude Oil - A Bargain Hunt" the larger oil producing nations are looking at the $50 mark as the benchmark heading into 2016. However, the institutions & techies are looking at $50 as a perfect opportunity to remain short. 

So how are the Traders actually clicking? Well.. the more short-term clickers are looking at more downside targets, however some trading puritans would argue about the risk:retun. Although, as i Look at the chart & price action this morning, you can see that the market is heavily gripped by short covers. 

 Hence the phrase "if I can scoop a small profit I will take my money and run" in my original post. 

Looking at a first target of $46.90 and would target ever 5 cent fall beneath this level.  Tempted to leave this short open for the rest of the day heading into early next week - especially after 4 days of straight decline. WTI is set to make its steepest weekly loss in 10 weeks and Brent in 8 weeks. The Market is expected to remain heavily over-supplied heading into 2016 & sadly for the Oil companies - The Facts do not lie! 

Some Oil optimists are hoping that Shale production forecasts are on the decline, as output is geared towards a fall in November and also data from the EIA showed gasoline stocks falling by 2.6 mio barrels per week. 

Best of luck with your positions 

AnishFX @ Atom8.com 

Gold : A Mastermind of the "Break-Out" - $1300 by 2016?

Ladies and Gentlemen

The precious yellow metal is back in the spot light after forming a pretty dull range so far this year between $1200.00 / $1100.00 and the outlook has remained bearish. However, this has all changed in the past few days as the October Bull awakens to the more uncertain Economic landscape, especially breathing from the US & from increased Geo-political action (The Ruski's in particular)!

Gold (XAUUSD.v) is showing strength above 1170 (formed yesterday) and all my indicators are pointing towards a further bull offensive. The commodity must continue to trade & hold above it's broker resistance (turned support) at 1170 to really create more scope for strength heading into the final months of 2016.  On the other click, if you remain a bear in this market - support comes in more at the 1165 level, where a break down to 1150.00 will really slam the brakes again on the metal. Me personally, I am hoping for a break of 1200 as I really do miss the days of huge Gold daily volume.

fig: Atom8 MT4 Terminal

How high could we go?  After breaking a "key resistance" level, the investor sentiment is more positive and will probably attempt to push it to a high for year-end. Gold is now trading above it's 200-day MA for the first time since May & prices could be further buoyed by (what is now expected to be) weaker US data & that the FED are now looking to raise rates next year.

A call for above 1200.00 could be realistic by December and I would not be surprised if we even saw a move to the $1,300 mark - as volume for Metals expect to be double by next year (source : mining.com).

Best of luck Traders,

Anish @ Atom8.com

Crude Oil - A Bargain Hunt?

Dear Traders

As we enter the final quarter in 2015, investors are watching the price of Crude Oil with an eagles eye.   Oil prices have been on a roller-coaster ride over the past few weeks, coming from 6-year lows and with talks of $30 per barrel (being the new normal) a few months ago, we have seen a remarkable comeback as the $50 mark was crossed for the first time since July.

It looks like more short-term players have seen this opportunity above $50 for greater profit-taking and more sizable positions seem to have taken the market back to $47 & if this price is not screaming for a "Pull-Back" before year-end.. I don't know what is!  However, more "conservative" fundamentalists focused on the over-supplied commodity are ignoring the price action and looking at more longer-term consolidations up to year-end & maybe till future rate-hikes - the recent drop in oil-rig counts did not help either! 

Idea

OPEC remain firm that demand should begin to increase in early 2016 and this should naturally reduce the worried over-supply figures, resulting in a more "balanced" market - which if true, should see investors price in a more bullish price action heading up to year-end.  However, warnings persist from the International Energy Agency insisting over-supply is set to stay. Although this view did not stop the Chinese "Bargain Hunters" from buying up more of the market last month.

With Russia now heavily involved in Syria and also stamping its foothold around the Middle-East's perimeter, the geo-political dynamics of the Oil Markets have a new found tension from the prospect of a potential stand-off between the US & Russia, as Russia looks at prioritizing it's hand in the Middle-Eastern Crude supply.

Recent ISIS attacks on production facilities in Norther Iraq have also added to this dynamic and of course, oil nations and businesses are keeping this in mind when attempting to analyse their quarter-end plans.

Overall, it is important to note that there is still an oversupply (surplus of around 1 million barrels per day). However, the "rebalance" force should help calm this supply over the next 12 months, where a turn upwards of $70-75 would really indicate a rebalanced market.

Trade OIL with Atom8

Atom8 are now proud to announce the launch of USOIL as a new CFD on their leading MT4 terminal. Spreads start from 1 pip and if you would like to test the core pricing, please email info@atom8.com

Best of luck with your trading

Anish 

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

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