The day ahead 31 May 2016

Good morning,

Tokyo led Asian stocks higher on Monday, as the Nikkei heads towards a close above 17,000 points for the first time in a month, after the yen plummeted against the strengthening dollar. Data released earlier in the session showed Japanese industrial output unexpectedly rose 0.3% in April, suggesting production is holding up despite weak exports and the impact from a series of earthquakes that struck southern Japan during that month. Shares in Shanghai surged +2.43% , Hong Kong +1.25%, while the ASX slipped  -0.19%. Underpinning Asian sentiment, European shares hit one-month highs on Monday amid otherwise light trade with markets in London and New York closed for public holidays.

In FX space the Aussie gained against its peers as building approvals data for April came in much better than expected (+3% against -3% exp). The positive sentiment also saw the Kiwi rally, whilst sterling soared above the 1.47 only to quickly retreat back towards the 1.4650 handle against the US dollar. The Euro is also under pressure as we head towards the European open.

Gold rose for the first time in 10 days -- breaking its longest losing streak in more than a year and currently sitting at $1212. Although strongly underpinned amid the extended broad based US Dollar correction, it looks to build a recovery towards the 100 dma located around $1217.50. Oil pushed back towards the psychologically key $50 a barrel mark as moves were limited ahead of Thursday's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. WTI sits at %49.58 and Brent at $49.73.

So to the day ahead and it looks to be a busy day as we enter the last sessions of the month. First up we have  German Retail sales (0700 BST) and Unemployment Report (0855 BST). Last week’s sentiment data suggests that Germany’s moderate growth trend will roll on, based on survey figures for consumers, the financial community and the business sector. There’s still concern about the near-term outlook, according to business polling, but overall, the mood points to more of the same: Economic expansion that’s less than stellar but strong enough to support the Eurozone's modest recovery. Forecasters are looking for a positive retail sales number of 1% whilst the jobless rate is set to remain unchanged at a low 6.2%. Close attention will be paid to the monthly update on changes in the number of newly unemployed workers for deeper context about the labour market trend.

Canadian GDP (1330 BST) The economy declined 0.1% in March, its first decline since November 2015 and the estimate for April is more of the same. According to Bank of Montreal, first quarter GDP is expected to rise nearly 3% annualized, thanks to solid growth at the turn of the year and a nice boost from net exports. Unfortunately, it said, the economy lost momentum as the quarter progressed, with March GDP expected to come in flat after a small contraction in the prior month adding Canada is going to get some sizeable volatility in the months ahead due to the Alberta wildfires and resulting drop in oil production.

US Consumer Confidence Indicator (1500 BST) Last week’s revised data for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May points to an improvement in the mood at the Q2 midpoint. The benchmark was revised down a bit from the preliminary reading for this month, but the index still posted a solid bounce higher against April – and relative to recent history as well. The CSI’s strength bodes well for today’s release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI), a competing measure. The two indices track one another, although there can be substantial differences in the short term. Economists think that today’s first look at the May data for CCI will post a solid rise to 96.0 for May against 94.2 in the previous month. A firmer reading for the Conference Board’s index isn’t surprising in the wake of CSI’s latest jump. If the upbeat forecast holds, the case will strengthen for arguing that consumer optimism is rising in the second quarter.

Trade Smarter

Anish 

The Day Ahead 23 May 2016

Good morning,

Asian shares rose on Monday following Friday’s solid session on Wall Street, while the dollar moved away from recent highs though remained supported as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve was on track to raise rates sooner rather than later. However, the  Nikkei extended losses, slipping 0.6% on worrying economic data and reports that Japan's sales tax increase would proceed as planned. Data released before the open showed Japan's exports tumbled 10.% in April from a year earlier, in line with expectations but down for a seventh straight month, reflecting sluggish demand from China and emerging markets. Imports also fell sharply, which in turn boosted the country's trade surplus above expectations. On top of this  Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI showed activity contracted at the fastest pace in more than three years in May as new orders  slumped.  China’s Shanghai is up 0.5%, The Hang Seng 0.66%, whilst the ASX trades 0.19% lower.

In FX Space the US dollar fell against the safe haven yen after Tokyo's threat to intervene to tame its resurgent currency faced criticism at the G7 ministers' meeting. Japan last intervened in currency markets around November 2011, when it tried to stem the yen's rise against the greenback to keep an economic recovery on track after the quake-tsunami disaster earlier that year. In a statement which presented a clear rebuff to Tokyo, the G7 group "underscored the importance of all countries refraining from competitive devaluation". A stronger yen hurts Japanese exporters, a key driver of the world's third largest economy, by making their products relatively more expensive overseas. Elsewhere the start of the week brought a session of consolidation for currencies with pairs trading within tight ranges as the market awaits fresh inspiration.

Gold has halted a 3 day slide and trades higher at $1255 whilst Oil slipped on both sides of the Atlantic as investors locked in profits after a second week of gains. WTI currently sits at $48.15 and Brent $48.53.

So to the day ahead and the week kicks off with a host of PMI reading from the Eurozone. Manufacturing and Services PMIs (0900 BST) Sentiment data for manufacturing has been firming in recent months while the comparable numbers for services remains steady, albeit modestly below levels in 2015. Taken together, these results suggest that Europe will hold on to a growth bias in the second quarter. The trend may tick lower relative to the first quarter's relatively robust 0.5% rise in GDP (quarter over quarter rate). But for the moment, the economic outlook for Europe in the second quarter remains in the plus column. Yet there’s also hints that the trend is slowing so today’s flash data on PMIs for May will provide fresh guidance on Europe’s macro trend at the mid-point for the second quarter.

US Manufacturing PMI (1445 BST) Manufacturing activity in the US expanded in April, but just barely, according to two national sentiment benchmarks. In a rare case of unity, both the ISM Manufacturing Index and Markit’s PMI settled at 50.8 in April — just above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Two early clues for May, via last week’s releases from regional Fed banks, point to weakness for this month. The New York Fed’s Empire State index fell sharply for the May reading, sliding to negative 9 — a dramatic reversal after April’s positive 9 value. The Philly Fed’s regional benchmark for manufacturing in May was also in negative territory. The market consensus calls for a rise in the Manufacturing PMI to 51.0 for May vs. 50.8 in the previous month. Better, but a reminder that the manufacturing trend remains shaky at best.

Good luck

Anish S. Lal – VP Sales

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Will 2016 Mark The Fall Of The Emerging Markets?

Ladies & Gentlemen, 

Brace yourself for a complete change in dynamics for 2016 and of course, the FED hiking cycle will become the catalyst. 

So should I still stay long the USD in 2016? Well in theory - Yes! In practice however, as the FED raises interest rates the USD will strengthen but these persistent increases (during the proposed cycle) will worry investors - especially for companies with Overseas Investment & for Industrial corporates (with the continued decline of commodities). It could be very expensive! 

A stronger USD now becomes a touchy situation. Mainly because the majority of Emerging Market Countries hold USD debt and this puts a stranglehold on the USD rallies. The probabilities of larger outflows from Countries like China, India is likely and will be the epicentre of pressure. It will be interesting to see how these Push/Pull Economic factors react next year.. Will it help their continued debt? 

The stage for 2016 has been set. 

China is an almost perfect author to this story. With recent trade numbers declining (6.9% yoy) and a staggering 18.8% decline in imports - Other Asian nations who once so heavily relied on China could now look elsewhere.  As the commodity boom slows, the GDP growth required for China to maintain its growth pattern could also fall off the charts! Instead we see a Global Deflationary Threat.

How will the USD react to each FED Rate Hike? - Looking at the past 11 Rate Cycles and in particular more recently when the FED moved from neutral to tightening, the USD fell 7% and to tell the way the USD could react now - one would have to look at the yield curves. Whenever it has been steep (and right now it is steep) it falls over double digits! But again, that would also depend on the forecasted tightening cycle... but really how long could it be? 

What about the Equity Markets? You want to be really focusing on Industrial, Tech & Energy stocks, because they will benefit from the inflationary cycle of the US Economy. But really does the public trust equities anymore? There are currently huge disparities in the major US indexes as during the past 5 years the Public have not really put any money into the equities, it has all been primarily driven by the FED & a lot of these position builders could effectively price in the first hike. 

Next stop... December 17. 

Trade Smarter
Anish8FX @ Atom8.com 

The Exaggerated Importance Of Today's NFP

Ladies & Gentlemen, 

One piece of Data that the Markets have been hanging onto (for the last fortnight now) is today's US Jobs Report. But has the Data release been overblown? Will this Data release really decide if the FED will hike in December or not? 

I think it is bizzare that we come to this point, after such a long time of FED Rate Hike talk and in fairness, we should of really started hiking back in September. In fairness to the FED, they have been transparent and the bar has been pushed lower - if yesterday's ADP result was considerably weaker the Markets would of considered changing direction, but it remains firm.

In my view, anything above 142K will be enough. My call is for 230K plus, but Markets may be focused on revisions, as it is about the "Nirvana" of finding a "Full Employment" level & Yellen more recently has stated that the "Excess" employment number has been diminished. 

So how strong is the USD? Well if you look at the Labor Participation Rate, which points to the strength of an Economy it has not really been up to par. However, these could come down to more structural demographic issues, which the FED could not really be judged on... but more-so on the "Excess capacity" of the market. 

The fact is the USD is on a tear and investors are still building more positions.. Looking at the chart, don't really see any stop in the way? Especially as Consumer Spending (which makes up 70% of GDP) is on the rise & this is also translated into incomes. The problem may come from mixed data, especially on the Manufacturing side, but if you strip this out the USD is the most bullish I have ever seen.

Best of luck today

Anish8FX @ Atom8.com

The "Long $" Play Over The Medium Term

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Tomorrow at 13:30 GMT we get the October Non-Farm Payroll number, the September figure was a disappointing 142k. A bounce to 182k is the Bloomberg survey consensus.

The FOMC members believe the chance of ‘lift off’ in December is still ‘live’, needing a reason not to hike is the new sentiment.

Tomorrow will give us further insight into the decision making process on 16^th December.

The Fed has maintained that the appropriate time to raise rates is when the sustained improvement in the labour market is attained, combined with confidence that inflation will move back to its 2% target over the medium term. These are the exact words from the press on 28^th October ‘the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate’. The dual mandate of Fed has been talked about in previous Event Risk updates.

I see the divergence in Central Bank policy as an opportunity to express ‘Long $’ plays over the medium term.

$/Jpy sits above the 200 day moving average at 121.10 and just below the 100 day moving average at 121.70, a daily close above 122 will see momentum accounts add to existing long positions. The first Friday of the month is always interesting.

Good Luck

Anish8FX @Atom8.Com

As Australia drops knights and dames from their honours system the other topical question is will the RBA drop interest rates?

The decision takes place tomorrow at 03.30 London time. Out of 30 economist polled by Bloomberg 40% of economists are looking for a 25 basis point cut from 2% to 1.75% Recently the CPI data has been weak and there have been concerns about Chinese demand for natural resources resulting in a sluggish domestic mining sector.

On the other hand local banks have recently hiked residential mortgage rates to cool an overheated housing market and to recoup the cost of increased capital requirements

I am adopting the ‘wait and see approach’ towards the RBA believing that any drop in the Aud/Nzd cross is a buying opportunity from the present 1.0550 level. Fundamental rate spreads between the two countries are arguing for this pairing to be trading closer to the 1.10 than parity level.  Last week the RBNZ was dovish with an explicit easing bias repeated, “Some further reduction in the OCR seems likely”.

There is a lot of data this week, the RBA tonight, the BOE on Thursday and then the NFP on Friday

Good Luck

Anish S. Lal @anish8fx

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The Saudi Spending Phenomenon - Will It Ever Stop?

Ladies & Gentlemen,

All Market eyes have been eyeing up Oil Prices, some are calling a further slump in 2016 and others are a bit more optimistic (seeking the $50 mark). However, with these lower prices, how has the World's biggest Oil player reacted & will it really hurt the Saudi Economy?

You would of actually never of guessed there to be an Oil slump from the shine of the Saudi economy and that is no accident, it is Saudi (well-planned) policies in action. The wealth from the Oil revenues has been shared and the public have firmly supported the Al Saud family, even as turmoil beckons on the horizon.

The IMF predicts that within 5 years, the Kingdom will run out of Financial Assets... But is that really true (raised eyebrow)? In theory, if they continue to spend at the rate they are & Oil prices remain low, then yes! However, they currently stand at a (Positive) 100% net cash : GDP ratio & if you look at a Country like Japan, who's net:GDP is -200%, I begin to differ with the IMF. Saudi literally are operating with no debt.

figure : Bloomberg source

Can this be protected for the Future? What if Oil prices continue to fall? I think you will start to see Saudi Arabia slowly decrease their heavy military contracts & begin opening their Economy up to foreign investment, by way of issuing Government debt or opening investment into Saudi stocks. More recently, the Saudi government to pull in about $70bn from Equity markets to begin adding more liquidity within their own markets -  "Welcome world to the Tadawul".

We could also see (like Qatar) a higher increase in Western Property purchases... Again another indication for potentially more spending.

Saudi issuing Debt? Really? How friendly would that be? Honestly speaking (ok - be careful here Anish #whips...) The country has been caged about opening it's Markets to the World and if done, would be extremely gradual, as they drift away from traditions. Most Governments generally support their Economy, by way of tax receipts.
However, over the past 3-4 decades, Saudi has been funded with Oil receipts.

Reality Check.. Oil still costs $3 to get out of the ground and with current production levels, Saudi are still generating $300-400bn from Oil revenues alone (at least)!

It looks like the Saudi powerhouse is only going to get stronger, especially as Investors from around Asia flock in. The next 5-10 years will be critical for the Kingdom, to really impose its strength as the World's largest Economy, alongside China.

Trade Smarter & Best of Luck for the week ahead.

Best wishes
Anish @ Atom8FX

Could Monetary Policy Divergence cause EURUSD to hit parity by December?

Ladies & Gentlemen, 

We have heard it over and over again & now it is crunch time, where Economic theories come into practice and the Markets click to the tune of the Central Bank Announcements. 

Here is what ING predicted at the start of 2015 and low & behold how the year has turned out to map  the below 

Over the last 12 months the Markets have remained bearish and the EURUSD has fallen from 1.40 to 1.05.. but why?  And the concept is pretty simple to understand, as the FED stop QE at the same time of the ECB continuing their QE policies. This is known in the Markets as a "Divergence in Monetary Policy" and as the Markets price in their expectations of a FED non-hike, the divergence is set to continue... Implicating parity and if not parity, then sub 1.00. 

Vamvakidis, head of G10 Strategy at Bank Of America calls for EURUSD to hit parity by December 15 and also the USDJPY to hit 125. 

What needs to happen for EUR parity? Well, in order for this prediction to hold - the divergence needs to move further. If we get more QE by the ECB in December and the FED does not hike (which is very ikely) we could easily see parity. But the FED hike is a matter of time and could be as early as Jan 2016. The equilibrium of the EURUSD cross is around 1.15, however, the Euro zone still has a significantly large Output Gap compared to the US & if the ECB announces an "open ended" (or Infinity based QE) - that could stir up a recipe for disaster - as the Bears would then look to push down to 0.75. 

How do I trade these markets? Volatility remains high and it is mainly the bears driving the markets, supported by the facts pushed from Central Bank data this month. Looking at the bigger picture, the FED will eventually look to hike rates but more than likely, it will not be until next year - even though Domestic data has improved in the US, I would not expect anything significant this week. Keep your eyes on the data A balance between Domestic Developments & External Developments is key for the FEDs decision & once we do see the hike... the bad news will hit hard & remain bad news! 

Can I Jump on The Karoda Vs Draghi Trade? The international expectation is for more BOJ easing and if you look at the currently inflation rate in Japan, the BOJ should actually be doing more. The USDJPY currently is not that strong, either not that weak. However, it would be ideal to remain long the volatility as no matter what happens USDJPY will move! 

I wish you the best of luck with your Trades & hope you keep your fingers on the right side of your mouse triggers! 

Anish @ Atom8.com 

Event Risk - ECB Meeting

Ladies and Gentlemen,

 

This Thursday the European Central Bank meeting takes place on the Mediterranean island of Malta, there is strong belief that there will be hints at further fresh stimulus to ward off the threat of deflation in the press conference following the Governing Council congress at 14:30CET

 

Last month Eurozone inflation fell below 0% to -0.1% this is the first time since March. Presently the ECB is currently committed to buying €60bn of government and corporate bonds each month until September 2016. But as Ewald Nowotny, an ECB Policymaker, has been quoted as saying it is “quite obvious” that additional instruments would be needed, as the ECB is “clearly missing” its inflation target. It is not if, but when.

 

What tools are available to the ECB? The obvious answer is it could boost QE to €80bn a month and/or further extended the programme beyond next September 2016.

 

Will they announce further ECB Stimulus? We believe there will be hints but no action.

 

One of the consequences of the Fed delaying ‘lift off’ has been a strengthening €, this is an unwelcome development adding deflationary pressure.

 

We believe the tone to this meeting will be dovish a weakening currency is the other unquantifiable tool that can help the Eurozone

 

Good Luck

 

Anish Lal 

 

Atom8 Financial Services LLP www.atom8.com

"Hold your Oil Shorts" Calls from the Floor

Ladies & Gentlemen 

As our eyes turn to the weekend - the volatile weekly Oil market draws to a close after a neat 10% slide on the back of further global supply gluts. 

From my post labelled "Crude Oil - A Bargain Hunt" the larger oil producing nations are looking at the $50 mark as the benchmark heading into 2016. However, the institutions & techies are looking at $50 as a perfect opportunity to remain short. 

So how are the Traders actually clicking? Well.. the more short-term clickers are looking at more downside targets, however some trading puritans would argue about the risk:retun. Although, as i Look at the chart & price action this morning, you can see that the market is heavily gripped by short covers. 

 Hence the phrase "if I can scoop a small profit I will take my money and run" in my original post. 

Looking at a first target of $46.90 and would target ever 5 cent fall beneath this level.  Tempted to leave this short open for the rest of the day heading into early next week - especially after 4 days of straight decline. WTI is set to make its steepest weekly loss in 10 weeks and Brent in 8 weeks. The Market is expected to remain heavily over-supplied heading into 2016 & sadly for the Oil companies - The Facts do not lie! 

Some Oil optimists are hoping that Shale production forecasts are on the decline, as output is geared towards a fall in November and also data from the EIA showed gasoline stocks falling by 2.6 mio barrels per week. 

Best of luck with your positions 

AnishFX @ Atom8.com 

Will the USA run out of cash by November?

Good Morning,

The overnight news was New Zealand’s inflation surprised marginally to the upside and US Treasury secretary Jacob Lew suggests  the US government will exhaust its emergency cash-management measures by November 3 and risks running out of cash if Congress doesn't raise the federal borrowing limit. Today’s data is 

10:00     Eurozone Trade Balance

                Eurozone CPI

13:30     Canadian Manufacturing Sales for August

14:15     Industrial Production for September

Capacity Utilization for September

15:00     University of Michigan Sentiment, Current Conditions and Expectations

On the speaking front we have we have BoJ’s Kuroda speaking at national Credit Union Association in Japan. BoE’s Forbes speaks at the `Brighton Chamber of Commerce on ’Growing your business in a Global Economy’ and ECB’s Coeure speaks in Berlin titled “Towards a Progressive Europe”

There are large 1.15 Eur/$ expiries and 120s in $/Jpy

Have a great week end

Gold : A Mastermind of the "Break-Out" - $1300 by 2016?

Ladies and Gentlemen

The precious yellow metal is back in the spot light after forming a pretty dull range so far this year between $1200.00 / $1100.00 and the outlook has remained bearish. However, this has all changed in the past few days as the October Bull awakens to the more uncertain Economic landscape, especially breathing from the US & from increased Geo-political action (The Ruski's in particular)!

Gold (XAUUSD.v) is showing strength above 1170 (formed yesterday) and all my indicators are pointing towards a further bull offensive. The commodity must continue to trade & hold above it's broker resistance (turned support) at 1170 to really create more scope for strength heading into the final months of 2016.  On the other click, if you remain a bear in this market - support comes in more at the 1165 level, where a break down to 1150.00 will really slam the brakes again on the metal. Me personally, I am hoping for a break of 1200 as I really do miss the days of huge Gold daily volume.

fig: Atom8 MT4 Terminal

How high could we go?  After breaking a "key resistance" level, the investor sentiment is more positive and will probably attempt to push it to a high for year-end. Gold is now trading above it's 200-day MA for the first time since May & prices could be further buoyed by (what is now expected to be) weaker US data & that the FED are now looking to raise rates next year.

A call for above 1200.00 could be realistic by December and I would not be surprised if we even saw a move to the $1,300 mark - as volume for Metals expect to be double by next year (source : mining.com).

Best of luck Traders,

Anish @ Atom8.com

All aboard the GBP/USD Roller-Coaster

Ladies & Gentlemen

In the last 24 hours we have witnessed one of the most wildest days for Cable, with a near 200 pip swing - behaving more like a "spoiled kid" trading FX for the first time.  We moved to 1.5390 when the AB InBEV / SAB Miller deal (now the world's biggest brewery) was announced before a sharp move to 1.5210.

UK employment data this morning has kept calmer the beast that could form this month in Sterling as it is held below 1.53... For now at least! The UK ILO Jobless rate was posted at 5.4%, actually the lowest since mid-2008... giving a further insight into an all important component for the UK employment sector, as people get their butts into work before Christmas.

So what are the important intra-day levels to watch? Well the initial hurdle of 1.53 is clear and above that to really prove bullish power would be 1.5345, where the 200-Day SMA marks. However, a breakdown in Cable this week could fast see an exposure of 1.5107 - the low from October 1st and then a bearish eye towards the 1.50 levels once more (lows of May & also key psychological support).

What is the Future for Cable? - Again the long-term dynamics of £/$ are likely to be determined by the continued debate around rate hikes and as we all know the global economy is slowing slightly and this slow-down could backlash on the UK as well as the USA. The near-term bias could still be on the down-side.

Wishing you the best of Luck

Anish 8FX

Crude Oil - A Bargain Hunt?

Dear Traders

As we enter the final quarter in 2015, investors are watching the price of Crude Oil with an eagles eye.   Oil prices have been on a roller-coaster ride over the past few weeks, coming from 6-year lows and with talks of $30 per barrel (being the new normal) a few months ago, we have seen a remarkable comeback as the $50 mark was crossed for the first time since July.

It looks like more short-term players have seen this opportunity above $50 for greater profit-taking and more sizable positions seem to have taken the market back to $47 & if this price is not screaming for a "Pull-Back" before year-end.. I don't know what is!  However, more "conservative" fundamentalists focused on the over-supplied commodity are ignoring the price action and looking at more longer-term consolidations up to year-end & maybe till future rate-hikes - the recent drop in oil-rig counts did not help either! 

Idea

OPEC remain firm that demand should begin to increase in early 2016 and this should naturally reduce the worried over-supply figures, resulting in a more "balanced" market - which if true, should see investors price in a more bullish price action heading up to year-end.  However, warnings persist from the International Energy Agency insisting over-supply is set to stay. Although this view did not stop the Chinese "Bargain Hunters" from buying up more of the market last month.

With Russia now heavily involved in Syria and also stamping its foothold around the Middle-East's perimeter, the geo-political dynamics of the Oil Markets have a new found tension from the prospect of a potential stand-off between the US & Russia, as Russia looks at prioritizing it's hand in the Middle-Eastern Crude supply.

Recent ISIS attacks on production facilities in Norther Iraq have also added to this dynamic and of course, oil nations and businesses are keeping this in mind when attempting to analyse their quarter-end plans.

Overall, it is important to note that there is still an oversupply (surplus of around 1 million barrels per day). However, the "rebalance" force should help calm this supply over the next 12 months, where a turn upwards of $70-75 would really indicate a rebalanced market.

Trade OIL with Atom8

Atom8 are now proud to announce the launch of USOIL as a new CFD on their leading MT4 terminal. Spreads start from 1 pip and if you would like to test the core pricing, please email info@atom8.com

Best of luck with your trading

Anish 

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The FOMC Countdown To Take-Off!

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Today the Federal Open Markets Committee begins a two day meeting in Washington, concluding with an announcement at 19:00 on 17^th September, followed by a press conference chaired by Janet Yellen. The stakes are high and the global financial markets wait with bated breath.

The members have a tough decision to make, should they raise rates for the first time since June 2006?

Larry Summer, the 71^st Secretary of the Treasury for President Clinton and Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama has stated in his blog that in the last 20 years the Fed has never tightened without guiding the futures market to at least a 70 percent chance of a tightening. Right now the Fed Funds futures market is assigning only a 28 percent chance of a September tightening.

There is a more centrist view, held by John Williams the San Francisco Fed President that low interest rates are sending out the wrong signal. They indicate that a crisis going on, when reality is very different. The labour markets have improved the economy is getting back on track and the correct signal is to raise rates. However the recent turbulence may make the members cautious.

What options are available? Do they raise rates and say they will not do so again until the inflation mandate is meet or do they continue to be data dependent and give further hints as to when lift off will happen.

We believe the press conference will give us a larger clue as to the normalisation process and prefer to be long volatility as the Fed seeks to explain how it’s mandate of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long term interest rates will be achieved.

Best of luck

Anish S. Lal @anish8fx

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Will NZ Interest Rates be cut by 25 basis points tonight?

Ladies and Gentlemen,

At 10 pm tonight, as the End of Day Reports filter through, the RBNZ announce their interest rate decision.

All 17 economist surveyed by Bloomberg believe they will cut interest rates by 25 basis point, however in recent days the currency has rallied from 0.6250 to 0.6425, why?

It looks as if this particular story is more about will they cut 25 basis point and infer the cutting cycle is over or will bearish Central bank rhetoric continue, Governor Wheeler holds a press conference immediately after the announcement.

The recent Chinese meltdown is not good news for NZ, the June trade date in NZ was the worst in 6 years and the main reason was exports to China slumped 29%, with Dairy exports falling 24%.

The Dairy industry in NZ is not in a good way, employers hiring is at the lowest pace for 2 years, there is falling consumer confidence, weaker retail sales, softer manufacturing PMI and poor business confidence. Altogether this makes for a gloomy picture. Asset price inflation via the housing market is about the only positive, but not strong enough to avert a cut.

I personally believe a cut is on the card and that technically 0.6425, 0.6458 and 0.6550 act as good resistance levels

Good Luck

Anish S. Lal @anish8fx

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

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Is the Australian Economy losing its shine?

Is the Australian economy losing its shine? The flippant answer is look at their cricket team, not the dominant force they once were J

However the more considered answer is that the economic slide is partly due to circumstances beyond the government’s control.

Commodity prices have fallen, the Australian economy has been based around mining and commodities so a period of adjustment is to be expected.

Event Risk - RBA Announcement (4th August 05:30)

What impact will lower interest rates have and is this tool the answer?

Lower interest rates are fuelling ‘Asset Bubbles’.

This is a global story but the Sydney Housing market is the extreme, up a staggering 18.4% (yoy) whilst economic growth has not reached over 3%

So why reduce rates further?

The currency is 35% lower over 4 years surely this should help exporters however the jobless rate is still stuck around 6% and business confidence surveys are not at the level the government would like. A cut is the short term fix but there is a longer term issue.

The cash rate is at 2% and very few expect a cut to 1.75% (25 out of 28 economists polled by Bloomberg have rates on hold.)

We get the quarterly monetary policy statement on Friday the last two times the Reserve Bank Board members meet before this statement they cut 25 basis points

As the proverb goes being forewarned is forearmed.

Anish S. Lal @anish8fx

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Are we on the brink of a EURUSD rally?

The greatest fall in modern history 

The last 9 months have wiped away over 30% of the value in the Euro against the Dollar and with Goldman Sachs & many other analysts calling for further moves to the downside past parity and into 0.80 territory -  This post argues for a bottom above parity and for a potential move to the upside. 

The Turnaround call... (follow the banks)

HSBC currency analysts last week called time on the USD rally, after being one of the firsts to spot the Bull in 2013. As US inflation remains shy of its target - policymakers tolerance for this strength will not last for much longer. Furthermore, HSBC said that the USD is the most overvalued currency in the market ahead of the CHF. 

Fundamental pitfalls 
The thriving Dollar & huge outflows from the Eurozone (post tensions from Greece & other failing nations) have combined to fatigue the politically formed currency group. 

Forecasts of parity claim to be easily achievable as the recent momentum has pointed too - with the Euro continuing it's stage of decline. 

Is there any hope left? 

Short-term relief for this major has come from the recent economic data out of the US - seeing extremely disappointing Non-Farm Payroll figures & analysts pointing towards a more dovish stance from the FED later this evening. 

This lies key for future FOMC Interest Rate meetings and also discussions for low US inflation as the FED continue to stagnate their first interest rate rise in years. 

This week, retail sentiment for EURUSD and also GBPUSD has switched to a more "bullish" outlook as buyers eye 1.10 - technical outlook pictures further scope for near-term USD weakness. 

Are we ready to climb higher?

Near-term gains for the Euro should not come as a surprise - especially as commodity markets are turning green and the pressure from the CAD has been somewhat relieved ahead of today's BOC speech. 

A break of 1.10 or 1.095 would set the tone for this pair that is torn between ongoing ECN QE and a relentless run of US data on the other hand & A dovish FOMC may just be the catalyst to send this exchange into higher levels. 

Trading with Atom8 (for the marketing stuff)...

Atom8's unique liquidity allows you to trade EURUSD from 0.1 + commission on MT4, Java or by FIX. 

Enquire now at www.atom8.com

-Peace & Love guys

Anish

The Spectacular Collapse of Iron Ore

Falling commodity prices and a weak outlook for growth have increased the chances for a rate cut by the RBA next week - further applying downward pressure on an already weakened AUD. 

The ASX 200 fell over 30 points last night, as the prices of Iron Ore continue to feel the impacts - with mining & energy stocks leading the way. 

BHP has lost 2.2% & Rio Tinto ended the session 1.4% lower today.

Iron Ore at 10 year lows

The recent $13bn purchase of a Chinese owned mine in Australia have most definitely awakened this bear. Dubbed the "Sino Iron Project" it has been heavily criticized by the industry - as the Chinese plan to pump millions of tons or Iron Ore into an already over-supplied market.  

China in Peru, Africa & now Australia 

On Tuesday, Iron ore fell to $51 per metric ton. That is the lowest it has been since 2004. This now forces the likes of Rio Tinto & BHP to curtail output to boost prices. However, China is not stopping - as the state owned firm citic are planning a 30 year project expanding Worldwide. Even despite the Chinese GDP slowdown, the country still aims to protect it's future needs. 

Realities 

The iron ore price would have to hit about $30 before the two major corps would risk losing money. 

Many voices in the industry point towards a wall around $45... but let's see what happens following next weeks prospective rate cuts. 

Meanwhile... Iron Ore continues to slide... 

Thank you for reading.

Any feedback or comments would be greatly appreciated.

- Anish