Monday, 2 November 2015

As Australia drops knights and dames from their honours system the other topical question is will the RBA drop interest rates?



The decision takes place tomorrow at 03.30 London time. Out of 30 economist polled by Bloomberg 40% of economists are looking for a 25 basis point cut from 2% to 1.75% Recently the CPI data has been weak and there have been concerns about Chinese demand for natural resources resulting in a sluggish domestic mining sector.

On the other hand local banks have recently hiked residential mortgage rates to cool an overheated housing market and to recoup the cost of increased capital requirements

I am adopting the ‘wait and see approach’ towards the RBA believing that any drop in the Aud/Nzd cross is a buying opportunity from the present 1.0550 level. Fundamental rate spreads between the two countries are arguing for this pairing to be trading closer to the 1.10 than parity level.  Last week the RBNZ was dovish with an explicit easing bias repeated, “Some further reduction in the OCR seems likely”.

There is a lot of data this week, the RBA tonight, the BOE on Thursday and then the NFP on Friday

Good Luck

Anish S. Lal @anish8fx
FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP
2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK
T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

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