The day ahead 31 May 2016

Good morning,

Tokyo led Asian stocks higher on Monday, as the Nikkei heads towards a close above 17,000 points for the first time in a month, after the yen plummeted against the strengthening dollar. Data released earlier in the session showed Japanese industrial output unexpectedly rose 0.3% in April, suggesting production is holding up despite weak exports and the impact from a series of earthquakes that struck southern Japan during that month. Shares in Shanghai surged +2.43% , Hong Kong +1.25%, while the ASX slipped  -0.19%. Underpinning Asian sentiment, European shares hit one-month highs on Monday amid otherwise light trade with markets in London and New York closed for public holidays.

In FX space the Aussie gained against its peers as building approvals data for April came in much better than expected (+3% against -3% exp). The positive sentiment also saw the Kiwi rally, whilst sterling soared above the 1.47 only to quickly retreat back towards the 1.4650 handle against the US dollar. The Euro is also under pressure as we head towards the European open.

Gold rose for the first time in 10 days -- breaking its longest losing streak in more than a year and currently sitting at $1212. Although strongly underpinned amid the extended broad based US Dollar correction, it looks to build a recovery towards the 100 dma located around $1217.50. Oil pushed back towards the psychologically key $50 a barrel mark as moves were limited ahead of Thursday's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. WTI sits at %49.58 and Brent at $49.73.

So to the day ahead and it looks to be a busy day as we enter the last sessions of the month. First up we have  German Retail sales (0700 BST) and Unemployment Report (0855 BST). Last week’s sentiment data suggests that Germany’s moderate growth trend will roll on, based on survey figures for consumers, the financial community and the business sector. There’s still concern about the near-term outlook, according to business polling, but overall, the mood points to more of the same: Economic expansion that’s less than stellar but strong enough to support the Eurozone's modest recovery. Forecasters are looking for a positive retail sales number of 1% whilst the jobless rate is set to remain unchanged at a low 6.2%. Close attention will be paid to the monthly update on changes in the number of newly unemployed workers for deeper context about the labour market trend.

Canadian GDP (1330 BST) The economy declined 0.1% in March, its first decline since November 2015 and the estimate for April is more of the same. According to Bank of Montreal, first quarter GDP is expected to rise nearly 3% annualized, thanks to solid growth at the turn of the year and a nice boost from net exports. Unfortunately, it said, the economy lost momentum as the quarter progressed, with March GDP expected to come in flat after a small contraction in the prior month adding Canada is going to get some sizeable volatility in the months ahead due to the Alberta wildfires and resulting drop in oil production.

US Consumer Confidence Indicator (1500 BST) Last week’s revised data for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for May points to an improvement in the mood at the Q2 midpoint. The benchmark was revised down a bit from the preliminary reading for this month, but the index still posted a solid bounce higher against April – and relative to recent history as well. The CSI’s strength bodes well for today’s release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI), a competing measure. The two indices track one another, although there can be substantial differences in the short term. Economists think that today’s first look at the May data for CCI will post a solid rise to 96.0 for May against 94.2 in the previous month. A firmer reading for the Conference Board’s index isn’t surprising in the wake of CSI’s latest jump. If the upbeat forecast holds, the case will strengthen for arguing that consumer optimism is rising in the second quarter.

Trade Smarter

Anish 

The day ahead 26 May 2016

Good morning,

Asia stocks were mixed on Thursday following a rally during the previous session, but energy firms were mostly up after oil surged past $50 a barrel for the first time this year. Investors seemed to brush off another strong lead from Wall Street and Europe, treading softly as the Group of Seven leaders' summit kicked off in Japan, where the sputtering global economy is likely to top the agenda. The Nikkei is up 0.5%, the ASX +0.3% with Shanghai and the Hang Seng down 0.97% and 0.41% respectively.

The yen surged on Thursday, taking some of the wind out of the sails of the recently buoyant dollar and prompting investors to cover positions against a backdrop of potential event risks, including a speech by Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen. A sudden spike in the yen in relatively illiquid conditions triggered stop-loss orders and brought the Japanese currency as low as 109.42 against the US dollar from a session high of 110.235. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Wednesday that he told his G7 counterparts at a finance leaders' meeting last week that Japan will raise the tax as planned. But he did not say whether that meant Japan has officially pledged to the international community that it will go ahead with the increase.

The Aussie dollar was also a mover overnight as Q1 capex came in well below expectations (-5.2% v -3.2% exp), the initial move lower on the headline (0.7162 vs US dollar) then saw the Aussie rally back through the 0.72 handle as the full details were digested. Elsewhere the US dollar has been on the back foot throughout the session as risk trades are again prominent.

Having bottomed out near $1218 region during Wednesdays trading, gold staged a solid comeback overnight on the back of profit-taking after the recent weakness. The bullion finally brought an end to its six-day losing streak rising to highs of $1234.35 before consolidating around the $1230 handle.

Brent crude passed $50 a barrel for the first time in 2016 on Thursday after data showed a fall in US crude inventories, adding to expectations of a tightening global market. Markets are now eyeing a June 2 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna where it is hoped a deal on reducing production can be reached. WTI currently sits at $49.88 and Brent $50.10.

So to the day ahead and first up we have UK Second Estimate GDP (0900 BST). The markets had their first look at GDP figures for Q1 with the release of Preliminary GDP in April, which showed a gain of 0.3%. This was short of the estimate of 0.5%. Little change is expected in the Second Estimate GDP release, with a forecast of 0.4% which is in line with the macroeconomic figures released lately.

US: Durable Goods Orders (1330 BST) Manufacturing appears to be recovering from its recent recession, but the preliminary numbers for May via survey data suggest otherwise. Markit’s purchasing managers’ index revealed that output fell this month for the first time more than six years. The hard data for April, however, is expected to deliver brighter news, albeit in terms of a one-month lag relative to the latest PMI update with headline orders for durable goods rising for a second month in a row, which hasn’t happened since last summer.

US: Initial Jobless Claims (1330 BST) New filings for unemployment benefits fell a hefty 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 278,000 for the second week of May. The decline is the first weekly slide since mid-April. The question is whether the recent surge in claims will continue in today’s release. Although last week’s report offered an encouraging change of pace, it’s always risky to reason from one number with the volatile claims data. A second weekly decline, however, will offer a more reassuring message. The crowd will be looking at today’s claims data to help decide if the PMI warning is noise or an early sign of trouble for the labour market.

Good luck

Anish S. Lal – VP Sales

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

CALLS FROM THE TRADING FLOOR - BUY GOLD!

Ladies & Gentlemen

After a four-year slide, the price of Gold has nowhere to go but higher and many investors are starting to agree. The case for the "safe-haven" was further assured today, as China's manufacturing data showed a contraction.

For the majority of the Commodity markets, January was another bad month in a long bear-market cycle - apart from Gold. Gold rallied 5% in Jan, the best monthly gain in a year.  

Turmoil in Chinese markets (with the view of a potential Global Sell-Off), Oil price uncertainties and a slowing US growth has tickled Investors demand for the traditional safe-haven asset. Again, their remains a high chance the FED will hold off on further interest rate rises this year adds to the attraction for the yellow metal. 

There is really no sign of a re-surge in inflation and this has also been a large factor to Golds rise and this relationship goes back to the 1980's. However, what is interesting is that through the last 12 month Gold slide, we have had China, Russia and India continuing to purchase Gold (about 55% more in 2015) - but then why did not this affect the Price? It seems investors are more focused on Financial Assets & The state of the US Economy rather than Countries Gold holdings. 

James Cordier, CEO of a US based Options firm said "With stock markets looking to crash all over the worlds and the US economy growing slowly, nothing is pointing to rate hikes and that is why Gold will continue to rally" . 

However, as mentioned in posts prior - it is important to note that Gold does not pay a coupon like other competing assets, although the price elasticity (over the last 5 years) seems to have drawn Investors (especially Central Banks, like China, Russia and India) towards the Bullion. 

For the coming weeks, months / Central bankers like Kuroda and Draghi have key speeches scheduled (as well as NFP this week) which could further spur the rally in Gold as the consensus is for further tightening and talks of Negative interest rates and more uncertainty.  

As always, Trade Smarter

Anish @Anish8Fx 

Could Monetary Policy Divergence cause EURUSD to hit parity by December?

Ladies & Gentlemen, 

We have heard it over and over again & now it is crunch time, where Economic theories come into practice and the Markets click to the tune of the Central Bank Announcements. 

Here is what ING predicted at the start of 2015 and low & behold how the year has turned out to map  the below 

Over the last 12 months the Markets have remained bearish and the EURUSD has fallen from 1.40 to 1.05.. but why?  And the concept is pretty simple to understand, as the FED stop QE at the same time of the ECB continuing their QE policies. This is known in the Markets as a "Divergence in Monetary Policy" and as the Markets price in their expectations of a FED non-hike, the divergence is set to continue... Implicating parity and if not parity, then sub 1.00. 

Vamvakidis, head of G10 Strategy at Bank Of America calls for EURUSD to hit parity by December 15 and also the USDJPY to hit 125. 

What needs to happen for EUR parity? Well, in order for this prediction to hold - the divergence needs to move further. If we get more QE by the ECB in December and the FED does not hike (which is very ikely) we could easily see parity. But the FED hike is a matter of time and could be as early as Jan 2016. The equilibrium of the EURUSD cross is around 1.15, however, the Euro zone still has a significantly large Output Gap compared to the US & if the ECB announces an "open ended" (or Infinity based QE) - that could stir up a recipe for disaster - as the Bears would then look to push down to 0.75. 

How do I trade these markets? Volatility remains high and it is mainly the bears driving the markets, supported by the facts pushed from Central Bank data this month. Looking at the bigger picture, the FED will eventually look to hike rates but more than likely, it will not be until next year - even though Domestic data has improved in the US, I would not expect anything significant this week. Keep your eyes on the data A balance between Domestic Developments & External Developments is key for the FEDs decision & once we do see the hike... the bad news will hit hard & remain bad news! 

Can I Jump on The Karoda Vs Draghi Trade? The international expectation is for more BOJ easing and if you look at the currently inflation rate in Japan, the BOJ should actually be doing more. The USDJPY currently is not that strong, either not that weak. However, it would be ideal to remain long the volatility as no matter what happens USDJPY will move! 

I wish you the best of luck with your Trades & hope you keep your fingers on the right side of your mouse triggers! 

Anish @ Atom8.com 

The FOMC Countdown To Take-Off!

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Today the Federal Open Markets Committee begins a two day meeting in Washington, concluding with an announcement at 19:00 on 17^th September, followed by a press conference chaired by Janet Yellen. The stakes are high and the global financial markets wait with bated breath.

The members have a tough decision to make, should they raise rates for the first time since June 2006?

Larry Summer, the 71^st Secretary of the Treasury for President Clinton and Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama has stated in his blog that in the last 20 years the Fed has never tightened without guiding the futures market to at least a 70 percent chance of a tightening. Right now the Fed Funds futures market is assigning only a 28 percent chance of a September tightening.

There is a more centrist view, held by John Williams the San Francisco Fed President that low interest rates are sending out the wrong signal. They indicate that a crisis going on, when reality is very different. The labour markets have improved the economy is getting back on track and the correct signal is to raise rates. However the recent turbulence may make the members cautious.

What options are available? Do they raise rates and say they will not do so again until the inflation mandate is meet or do they continue to be data dependent and give further hints as to when lift off will happen.

We believe the press conference will give us a larger clue as to the normalisation process and prefer to be long volatility as the Fed seeks to explain how it’s mandate of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long term interest rates will be achieved.

Best of luck

Anish S. Lal @anish8fx

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Are Women Better Traders Than Men?

...... So are you distracted? 

If you are Male you probably will look at her for about 2-3 seconds then notice that she is looking at charts.... If you are a Male trader you will more likely look back at her for a few more moments..... Still distracted?..... 

Well you can find the full image link here - as our broker licensed her for our landing page (hehe) : 

https://www.atom8.com/lp/english/

The Fintrader study 

Fintrader, like Atom8 offers online retail FX accounts and came out with an interesting study stating that 25% of their clients are women (compared to virtually 0) 10 years ago and one of their analysts claimed that the reason behind their trading success was due to "Women psychology".... 

Think like a women to succeed in trading 

Like all, I am pretty skeptical but as I dig within my own research base... even though we have a handful of female clients, as I scan their performances - they are pretty darn profitable. Perhaps the "Man-Ego" is naturally alerted once such claim arises but it now makes some sort of sense why many traders are teaching their wives strategies & letting them get on with it... (even though their volumes are no-where near as high.... argggghhh!) 

By nature we have balls & with balls we have a natural "Alpha" about us... leaders of the pack... hunters...providers for our families.. This sense of maninism rests on our shoulders & the perceived responsibility is huge! 

I put it down to about 3 reasons why Women are better :

1. Women are probably better at "Crisis-Management" and less emotional - therefore more disciplined and less likely to panic when losing trades occur or are in huge drawdowns; 

2. As we may have experienced.... Women are better at saying "NO" lol - (loling on a blog - yes I do that) -  On the contrary, we all see trades that we know we should not really take... but the reward just looks so tempting... Women however, stick to their manuals & perhaps approach trading with a more measured approach instead of diving in head-first! ; and

3. Mainly because Men have balls. 

Some Statistics 

I remember in University I was looking at something similar and came across a study by Gary Belsky who in said that men traded 45% traded more frequently or "hyperactively" than women and concluded that the explanation for lower net returns (men vs women) was due to male overconfidence - leading to counterproductive trades... 

Why are only 20% of Investment Bank Traders are Women?

What is the one word you associate to Trading?.... "RISK"...

It is simple... Men take more risks than Women... We wouldn't be in an industry of $4 Trillion volume per day if women were sitting behind desks... We would have stagnant market movement in fact...
In a world where cost matters

Brokerages run on commissions & need volume....  Therefore, we have a natural conflict of interest... Albeit, women trade more profitably... but they don't break the rules enough... Are they crooked enough to play the Finance game?

So ladies... if you are already trading - well done! Keep it up & make full use of your time trading profitably whilst the volume is there - take advantage!.... Gentlemen... Pay attention... Learn something from these delicate flowers... Teach your girl/wife the skills & grow with each other... Do this together instead of letting her nagging you about your livelihood from trading... Take a holistic approach & reap the rewards...

I personally think our roles as Men is to protect our women & learn form them... We have a lot to gain...

You be glad to know that Women or Man you can trade your FX with Atom8 :)

Peace & Love
Anish 

Are we on the brink of a EURUSD rally?

The greatest fall in modern history 

The last 9 months have wiped away over 30% of the value in the Euro against the Dollar and with Goldman Sachs & many other analysts calling for further moves to the downside past parity and into 0.80 territory -  This post argues for a bottom above parity and for a potential move to the upside. 

The Turnaround call... (follow the banks)

HSBC currency analysts last week called time on the USD rally, after being one of the firsts to spot the Bull in 2013. As US inflation remains shy of its target - policymakers tolerance for this strength will not last for much longer. Furthermore, HSBC said that the USD is the most overvalued currency in the market ahead of the CHF. 

Fundamental pitfalls 
The thriving Dollar & huge outflows from the Eurozone (post tensions from Greece & other failing nations) have combined to fatigue the politically formed currency group. 

Forecasts of parity claim to be easily achievable as the recent momentum has pointed too - with the Euro continuing it's stage of decline. 

Is there any hope left? 

Short-term relief for this major has come from the recent economic data out of the US - seeing extremely disappointing Non-Farm Payroll figures & analysts pointing towards a more dovish stance from the FED later this evening. 

This lies key for future FOMC Interest Rate meetings and also discussions for low US inflation as the FED continue to stagnate their first interest rate rise in years. 

This week, retail sentiment for EURUSD and also GBPUSD has switched to a more "bullish" outlook as buyers eye 1.10 - technical outlook pictures further scope for near-term USD weakness. 

Are we ready to climb higher?

Near-term gains for the Euro should not come as a surprise - especially as commodity markets are turning green and the pressure from the CAD has been somewhat relieved ahead of today's BOC speech. 

A break of 1.10 or 1.095 would set the tone for this pair that is torn between ongoing ECN QE and a relentless run of US data on the other hand & A dovish FOMC may just be the catalyst to send this exchange into higher levels. 

Trading with Atom8 (for the marketing stuff)...

Atom8's unique liquidity allows you to trade EURUSD from 0.1 + commission on MT4, Java or by FIX. 

Enquire now at www.atom8.com

-Peace & Love guys

Anish

$20 Oil by 2016?

Dear Readers

From our highs of $110 last year... We have seen the price of oil fall to uncharted territory - Lows not seen for 6 years & it looks like there is no stopping this fall... But what is the driving force behind the decline? & why are prices not being absorbed into our REAL Economy? Why are Petrol prices not falling & why are my flight tickets more expensive than last year? 

Let's try and break this down...


Key Economic Facts 

• The value of WTI/Brent has fallen over 50% in under 12 months;
• US Oil Production is at record highs; 
• US Hoarding levels are at all-time highs (Storage with the anticipation of a price hike); 
• Refineries are due to be offline for repairs in Spring...Storage levels set to increase further; 

Source : DailyFX

Political Uncertainties 

Let's take Iran for example... the falling Oil price has probably hit Iran more than others, given their export sanctions & talks of relaxing their sanctions have driven down global prices...

Why is Iran so important?

• IRAN has almost 10% of the world's proven reserves; 
• Iran has 37 million barrels of oil in storage ready for IMMEDIATE export

Relaxing sanctions would significantly support the European economies (who are becoming more reliant on trans-Atlantic Crude) & also ease the black-market issues which lurk in the background. 

The US Economy would also infact benefit!

However, actual oil production has dropped over 60% in the last 3 years; and Financial sanctions have made it extremely difficult for Iran to attract FDI to actually pump Oil out of the ground. Back in late 2014, India was importing 350,000 barrels of Iranian oil per day... That has now fallen to 50K.


What will happen now? 

Yesterday, Oil prices began their fight back on the back of a weaker USD... but this could easily be short-lived.

As Oil Storage capacities continue to deplete, it becomes more likely that prices could drop significantly. However, this also depends on the extent of production....

As all of this occurs, demand for domestic crude in the US declines... pushing prices down & forcing more into storage....

"WTI could drop to $35 per barrel in the coming months" Projection from Societe General.

Could Oil become the Most Lucrative Investment in Modern History?

As populations continue to exponentially increase... there is no doubt demand will rise... However, a renewed bout of weakness in the oil markets, notwithstanding this week’s price gains, was further backed up by comments from the Saudi Arabia’s OPEC governor Mohammed al-Madi, who said on March 22 that a return to $100 per barrel would be hard to reach. Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi reiterated that position, blaming non-OPEC producers for their unwillingness to cut back on production. He said that OPEC will not do it alone, and even revealed the fact that Saudi Arabia recently boosted its oil production to 10 million barrels per day. “The production of OPEC is 30 percent of the market, 70 percent from non-OPEC...everybody is supposed to participate if we want to improve prices,” al-Naimi said.

Trading Oil with Atom8 - Coming soon for April 2015

Hope you enjoyed the read. Any comments, Feedback would be largely appreciated.

Peace & Love 

Anish @anish8fx

Can I double my money by buying Silver now?

Dear Those who dare to ponder

We analyse here, the case for a long position in my favorite (sometimes overshadowed) Precious Metal - Silver (XAGUSD) 

It is first important to understand the history & Economics of Silver trading. As traditionally, Silver was commonly accepted as a monetary metal, but more nowadays its principal uses are for industrial purposes & derivatives trading. 

Isaac Newton set the monetary relationship between XAU & XAG at 15.5 times when he was the master of the Royal Mint (nearly 300 years ago). However, today the ratio is more about 75 times. 

Key Fact

Supply of mined Silver & scrap recycling materials total 980 million Oz. 

Vs

Demand of Silver is currently around 1,080 million Oz. (About 25% being bars & coins)

Silver Institute study. circa 2014. 

It is clear that the characteristic of this white metal is hard to substitute with others. So.... the price can increase somewhat without actually reducing the industrial demand. 

What contributes to a rise in the metals?

The notional thoughts of growing uncertainties among the major currencies economically are priced in a rise of Gold. The yellow metals seen traditionally as a hedge against uncertainty, as from the (almost) 2,000 oz high at the peak of the recession. 

Will the ongoing EU Crisis & a USD reversal warrant this long position? 

It stands to reason that Silver will also rise, according to the Newton based relationship and Silver's price volatility relative to Gold is about 2 times higher... So in a rising market... a good idea would be to get a leverage buy on Silver. As the ongoing uncertainties within the EU & fears of a USD (bull-run) end... Is beginning to interest buyers who are chasing a bottom of both Gold & Silver markets.... Of course, however is the price of Gold falls, the losses of Silver can be expected to correspond greater.  

Following the end of the gold standard and its replacement with government currencies, there have been many occasions when gold ownership has been banned. Today this may seem unlikely, but confiscation may become increasingly possible if monetary conditions deteriorate in the future. As silver is predominantly an industrial metal, it should offer protection against this possibility.

Silver trading at 5 year lows... 

Dynamics of the W,X,Y Elliot Wave Structure : 

In 2014... Investor demand outweighed supply by $113M. With Silver ETF trust fund holdings holding now record level highs in supply... However, some analysts think such a robust & consistent demand for Silver is crazy... As you can see from the chart above "retail investors" kept buying silver as it kept falling.... 

From $49.50 in 2011 to $12.40 in the spot market... A new, sudden & brief 5 year low!

Metally speaking... Technologies are now replacing the demand lost from smart phones... & the industrial uses of Silver is now once more questioned... However, many people look at Silver as an "indispensable metal" from solar panels to "Silver" touch screens... 

Furthermore, if you look at this market from an "Eagles eye"... the fact is that it looks historically cheap in terms of Gold. Being a noble metal, Silver does not rust or corrode... it is the most conductive of all materials for electricity...  

With Global growth... you can build a solid case for Silver's long-term value... But as short-term traders now... When Silver moves... It really moves as the 19% day rally proved back in December 14. 

Sane investors can fast track their Silver buying spree & check out www.atom8.com for the lowest possible costs. 

Peace & Love Guys 

-Anish 

Any questions, let me know & your feedback is most appreciated...

DEMOLISHING THE EURO CURRENCY

Dear Readers

Hope you all had an amazing weekend.

As talks progress with Brussels, Frankfurt & Athens... The Greek economy is presented with now 2 options :

- Leave the Euro, defaulting on it's debt & starting again with the Drachma;

OR

- Find a new "bailout" agreement from the ECB (heavily supported by German Euros) & continue operating with their high level of debts.

If Greece do leave the Euro, The markets will ask who is next?  As this event could create a cascade of defaults across the EU. Spain, Ireland, Portugal or even Italy... Causing mass scale crashes in the EU banking systems - possibly bankrupting Governments.

In reality... will the ECB let this happen?.... Maybe so....

Draghi reduced interest rates back in 2012 to prevent this very occurrence. However, Unemployment rates still remain at peaks greater than the recession.. Spain at 24%, Greece 26%, France 10.5%... To me this is not a Crisis but verging onto a depression..

Looking at the EU as a whole... many economic disparities are noticeable... For example, Ireland's main trading partners are the UK & the USA... Vs. Finland's main trading partner being Sweden. The formation of the Euro was based on a Political foundation rather than an Economic one.

This structural formation of the Eurozone has been the main creator of the issues faced within the EU. Outsourcing ones monetary policies to Brussels have left countries like Ireland, Portugal, Greece & Spain totally incapable of controlling their economies & promoting internal recoveries.... Then what happens? ... FDI drops... Foreign Investors start pulling out their money and start investing in developing nations, where yields over time are more promising.

Just today, Norway's biggest hedge fund announced a new tranche of investment into South Asian property.

Ladies & Gentlemen - we have now a Currency crisis.

For years now, Frankfurt & Brussels have been trying to counter-act this by currency devaluation in certain countries - so you have lower wages & internal devaluations - but the countries debt is still priced the same.

What happens now?

Theoretically, Greece can escape their debt burden... A possible sequence :
1. They default on all their debts;
2. Forces Greek banks to buy Greek bonds;
3. It has Greek banks sell their bonds back to the ECB - therefore putting the ECB in line for paying back Greek debt...

If the ECB agrees to this, it means the Greeks have escaped their debt burdens..

But why would the ECB buy Greek debt?

Would it not be economically cheaper for them to #Grexit?

More fiscal support is not supported by the Northern EU nations....

Keep it fresh guys

- Peace & Love
Anish

FX Room Interview with Dale Pinkert (link in blog)

Hey guys

Just a brief caption of my Market outlook... Link here:

http://ow.ly/KAxlh

Your feedback/comments would be greatly appreciated.

Anish 

RISK WARNING! Did you read the Terms & Conditions?

To my Amazing readers

As I send out my morning batch of client emails...  I pay attention to the "HIGH RISK INVESTMENT WARNING" from my disclaimer.

Warren Buffet said "Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing".... (think about it)!

You would of seen these on any reputable Broker site... & of course, being authorised by the FCA we are required to put it on all of our communication.

Have you ever thought what drives the human mind towards "High Risk Investments"?.... What is it? Why do we want to throw our hard-earned money into stuff that is not certain?..

I personally think, especially in Men... it is in our nature to be THE BOSS & in doing so, we have been taught to take risks & put all of our cards on the table...

From what I have seen...

Most get burned....
A few get lucky...

What do you do after this stage?...  U know once the experimental phase has finished... Do you continue on your path of these "High Risk Investments"... or do you give up?  How does one define risk?.... How badly do you want to get rich?

For decades we have seen these speakers... promoting pyramid schemes (all in fact to hit sales targets)... prey on this human want to be more than they are...  Even though we know we are taking the risk.... What actually drives us to take these risks?

In my view, everyone with ambition... does not want to settle for less... BUT there is a lot of bullshit out there & people need to be guided along the right path... The truth is with the internet out there... there is no reason to not be SELF-SUFFICIENT.

Read about success stories.... REAL success stories... Study great people & take little bits from them... Combine all of this greatness into your own mission... Tupac said.. "Study great people, until they are no longer great to you"....  Osho said "Knowledge is all borrowed, and is there to be internalised for ones growth"

We need to start thinking ourselves!

Success comes when you are ONE STEP outside of your comfort zone!

Let's get it people..

Peace & Love

- Anish