A Broker's Eyes : BOE

Showing posts with label BOE. Show all posts

Friday, 13 May 2016

Overnight and The Day Ahead - Friday 13th May

Good Morning,

Yesterday was about the ‘Proud Pound’ Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, was unambiguous about the EU referendum; ‘Brexit’ would lead to a loss of jobs, a fall in the value of the pound and ultimately lead to a ‘technical recession’ - 6 months of falling growth. Has he overstepped the mark and become a political Governor, in his role he is supposed to be politically impartial. He believes he has the right to speak frankly about the economy and Brexit carries the risk of recession.

Stocks – The Nikkei is down 1%, nothing specific - the news that Nissan and Mitsubishi reached agreement lead to a surge of 16% in the Mitsubishi share price yesterday, today it is down 4%.

Oil is having a good week opening at 46.20, this is up 7% from the Monday open, we get the Baker Hughes Oil rig count later today

Gold opens at 1272, the range this week has been 1257 -1281.

We had Retail Sales data out of New Zealand overnight, coming in slightly weaker than expected at 0.8% QoQ and the currency dipped below 0.6800, 0.6793 the low.

Today in the US we get Retail Sales, Producer prices, the Michigan consumer sentiment and business inventories.

Why is Friday 13^thconsidered unlucky? One theory is that Thomas W Lawson’s popular novel ‘Friday, the Thirteenth’ published in 1907 contributed to disseminating the superstition.

In the novel, an unscrupulous broker takes advantage of the superstition to create a Wall Street panic on a Friday the 13^th.

Good Luck today and enjoy your week end.

Anish S. Lal – VP Sales

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Thursday, 5 November 2015

The "Long $" Play Over The Medium Term

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Tomorrow at 13:30 GMT we get the October Non-Farm Payroll number, the September figure was a disappointing 142k. A bounce to 182k is the Bloomberg survey consensus.

The FOMC members believe the chance of ‘lift off’ in December is still ‘live’, needing a reason not to hike is the new sentiment.

Tomorrow will give us further insight into the decision making process on 16^th December.

The Fed has maintained that the appropriate time to raise rates is when the sustained improvement in the labour market is attained, combined with confidence that inflation will move back to its 2% target over the medium term. These are the exact words from the press on 28^th October ‘the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate’. The dual mandate of Fed has been talked about in previous Event Risk updates.

I see the divergence in Central Bank policy as an opportunity to express ‘Long $’ plays over the medium term.

$/Jpy sits above the 200 day moving average at 121.10 and just below the 100 day moving average at 121.70, a daily close above 122 will see momentum accounts add to existing long positions. The first Friday of the month is always interesting.

Good Luck

Anish8FX @Atom8.Com

Wednesday, 5 August 2015

Bank of England's Super Thursday

Ladies and Gentlemen,

If you look at the list of data being released tomorrow in the UK, you will see why the media are referring to it as ‘Super GBP Thursday’.

09:00 New Car Registrations

09:30 Industrial Production

Manufacturing Production

12:00 Bank of England Inflation Report and Minutes to the meeting

Bank of England Bank rate (0.5%)

We get 3 data points from the BOE at midday, the minutes of its policy meeting, the quarterly inflation report forecast and the Interest rate decision, presently 0.5%.

Normally, these reports are on separate days.

What should we be looking out for?

How the members of the MPC vote, the last 7 meetings have been 9-0. Are there any dissenters in the ranks?

Martin Weale confirmed he was one of two members that nearly voted for rate rise at the last meeting and JP Morgan have forecast a 6-3 vote.

Who are the other possible dissenters? Kristin Forbes said there will be a rate rise ‘in the not too distant future’.

However I take note from the BOE chief economist Andrew Haldane ‘ For me the combination of a healing economy, very low price pressures and a wobbly world means there is no rush to move rates from where they are now’. It is important to remember that the BOE mandate is to deliver price stability and then support growth and employment.

It will a very interesting day as the market presently expects a rate rise in May of next year, if the hawks win then 1.5680 is the level to watch whilst a leaning towards the doves would see 1.5470 tested.