The Day Ahead 25/05/2016

Good morning,

Asian shares fell to near 10-week lows on Tuesday as a stubbornly strong yen dragged Tokyo into the red while falling oil prices deflated energy shares.  With few fresh catalysts to drive sentiment, investors eye the start of Thursdays G7 summit in Japan with the sputtering global economy a key topic on the agenda during the 2 day meeting, while worries over a possible US interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve as early as next month again took hold.  Adding to the US central bank's hawkish signals last week that a June US rate raise could be on the cards, a prominent Fed board member weighed in with comments that suggested markets could be behind the curve on the Fed's intentions. Since raising rates in December for the first time in nine years, the US central bank in March forecast essentially two rate rises for this year, but markets have had much lower expectations amid a batch of lack lustre US economic data. However, James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed and a voting member of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said in a speech on Monday in Beijing that US labour market and inflation data suggested the Fed's projection "may be more nearly correct".  The Nikkei trades down 0.73%, Shanghai  -0.77%, Hang Seng -0.55% and the ASX -0.1%.

In the FX space the Aussie dollar extended loses below the 0.7200 handle against the US dollar as RBA Governor Stevens reinforced his pledge to combat lower inflation levels by deploying appropriate monetary policy framework, and thereby justifying his May rate cut stance. The kiwi dollar also fell overnight as the bears took control as a classic risk-off sentiment gripped the markets with the US dollar paring some of its recent loses and the yen holding onto gains.

Gold extends its losing streak into a fifth-day this Tuesday as US dollar strength weighs on the yellow metal capping any effort to the upside. Having posted session highs of $1252.35 it quickly fell to lows of $1244 and has looked vulnerable since. Oil dipped for a second day as comments from Iranian officials vowing to keep production up did little to dispel worries about global oversupply. WTI and Brent trade $47.90 and $48.11 respectively.

So to the day ahead and this week’s first tier data release is German ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator (1000 BST).  Economic activity accelerated in Europe’s biggest economy in May, according to yesterday’s survey data from Markit Economics. The firm’s composite purchasing managers’ index for Germany ticked up to 54.7 in this month’s flash estimate – a five-month high and the first improvement so for in 2016. Whilst the PMI data is encouraging a closer look still leaves room for caution. Today’s update in Germany’s financial sector will provide more context for assessing the May macro profile. The last two reports reveal a modest rebound in expectations, but the firmer outlook for the future was accompanied by an ongoing slide in the current reading of economic conditions.

UK Inflation Report Hearing (1000 BST)  With exactly one month left to go before the UK holds a referendum that will decide whether or not it stays in the European Union, the British pound has generally remained resilient in the face of substantial downside risk to the currency that would very likely result from a successful “Brexit” vote. Aside from the Brexit issue, last week saw mixed data out of the UK, including a lower-than-expected inflation reading in the form of the Consumer Price Index, and better-than-expected numbers for average earnings, unemployment claims, and retail sales. Expect plenty of trading opportunities from todays lengthy hearing.

US New Home Sales (1500 BST) The combination of job growth and low interest rates have dispensed a bullish edge for the housing market so far this year. Some indicators have been choppy at times, but sentiment in the home building industry remains upbeat. Last week’s numbers on existing home sales look promising too. Transactions edged higher in April for the third month in a row, sticking close to the highest level since the recession ended. Today’s update on newly built houses is expected to bring good news as well as the market looking for a gain that will push sales up to 523,000 for April (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

Good luck

Anish S. Lal – VP Sales

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The Day Ahead 23 May 2016

Good morning,

Asian shares rose on Monday following Friday’s solid session on Wall Street, while the dollar moved away from recent highs though remained supported as investors bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve was on track to raise rates sooner rather than later. However, the  Nikkei extended losses, slipping 0.6% on worrying economic data and reports that Japan's sales tax increase would proceed as planned. Data released before the open showed Japan's exports tumbled 10.% in April from a year earlier, in line with expectations but down for a seventh straight month, reflecting sluggish demand from China and emerging markets. Imports also fell sharply, which in turn boosted the country's trade surplus above expectations. On top of this  Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI showed activity contracted at the fastest pace in more than three years in May as new orders  slumped.  China’s Shanghai is up 0.5%, The Hang Seng 0.66%, whilst the ASX trades 0.19% lower.

In FX Space the US dollar fell against the safe haven yen after Tokyo's threat to intervene to tame its resurgent currency faced criticism at the G7 ministers' meeting. Japan last intervened in currency markets around November 2011, when it tried to stem the yen's rise against the greenback to keep an economic recovery on track after the quake-tsunami disaster earlier that year. In a statement which presented a clear rebuff to Tokyo, the G7 group "underscored the importance of all countries refraining from competitive devaluation". A stronger yen hurts Japanese exporters, a key driver of the world's third largest economy, by making their products relatively more expensive overseas. Elsewhere the start of the week brought a session of consolidation for currencies with pairs trading within tight ranges as the market awaits fresh inspiration.

Gold has halted a 3 day slide and trades higher at $1255 whilst Oil slipped on both sides of the Atlantic as investors locked in profits after a second week of gains. WTI currently sits at $48.15 and Brent $48.53.

So to the day ahead and the week kicks off with a host of PMI reading from the Eurozone. Manufacturing and Services PMIs (0900 BST) Sentiment data for manufacturing has been firming in recent months while the comparable numbers for services remains steady, albeit modestly below levels in 2015. Taken together, these results suggest that Europe will hold on to a growth bias in the second quarter. The trend may tick lower relative to the first quarter's relatively robust 0.5% rise in GDP (quarter over quarter rate). But for the moment, the economic outlook for Europe in the second quarter remains in the plus column. Yet there’s also hints that the trend is slowing so today’s flash data on PMIs for May will provide fresh guidance on Europe’s macro trend at the mid-point for the second quarter.

US Manufacturing PMI (1445 BST) Manufacturing activity in the US expanded in April, but just barely, according to two national sentiment benchmarks. In a rare case of unity, both the ISM Manufacturing Index and Markit’s PMI settled at 50.8 in April — just above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Two early clues for May, via last week’s releases from regional Fed banks, point to weakness for this month. The New York Fed’s Empire State index fell sharply for the May reading, sliding to negative 9 — a dramatic reversal after April’s positive 9 value. The Philly Fed’s regional benchmark for manufacturing in May was also in negative territory. The market consensus calls for a rise in the Manufacturing PMI to 51.0 for May vs. 50.8 in the previous month. Better, but a reminder that the manufacturing trend remains shaky at best.

Good luck

Anish S. Lal – VP Sales

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Overnight and The Day Ahead - Friday 13th May

Good Morning,

Yesterday was about the ‘Proud Pound’ Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, was unambiguous about the EU referendum; ‘Brexit’ would lead to a loss of jobs, a fall in the value of the pound and ultimately lead to a ‘technical recession’ - 6 months of falling growth. Has he overstepped the mark and become a political Governor, in his role he is supposed to be politically impartial. He believes he has the right to speak frankly about the economy and Brexit carries the risk of recession.

Stocks – The Nikkei is down 1%, nothing specific - the news that Nissan and Mitsubishi reached agreement lead to a surge of 16% in the Mitsubishi share price yesterday, today it is down 4%.

Oil is having a good week opening at 46.20, this is up 7% from the Monday open, we get the Baker Hughes Oil rig count later today

Gold opens at 1272, the range this week has been 1257 -1281.

We had Retail Sales data out of New Zealand overnight, coming in slightly weaker than expected at 0.8% QoQ and the currency dipped below 0.6800, 0.6793 the low.

Today in the US we get Retail Sales, Producer prices, the Michigan consumer sentiment and business inventories.

  

Why is Friday 13^th considered unlucky? One theory is that Thomas W Lawson’s popular novel ‘Friday, the Thirteenth’ published in 1907 contributed to disseminating the superstition.

In the novel, an unscrupulous broker takes advantage of the superstition to create a Wall Street panic on a Friday the 13^th.

Good Luck today and enjoy your week end.

Anish S. Lal – VP Sales

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Overnight and The Day Ahead 12.05.2016

Good Morning,

After yesterday’s gains is the Kiwi, today it is the poor performance of the Aussie dollar that catches the attention of the market.

Despite some interest at 79.50 in AUD/JPY out of Tokyo, the AUD/USD is down 0.5% on the day and down 4% over the past month.

Last week the RBA cuts rates to 1.75% and they have another 40 bps of cuts priced into the 1-year curve with the next cut fully priced in for November.

Toyota and Bridgestone earnings were disappointing, Nissan announces a tie up with Mitsubishi, Nissan are looking to take a third stake in the company, both boards are meeting. All Asian stocks markets indices are in the red, the risk off environment remains.

 The BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has had comments published from an interview with German’s Boersen-Zeitung, the headline statement was “Technically we can go as low as the ECB”.  Other comments included it is “Desirable for FX to reflect economic analysis“ and the “Finance Minister is responsible for Japan’s FX Policy.”

The day ahead has ‘Super Thursday’ here in the U.K, finally some data to get our teeth into, actually it will be the speech by Governor Carney that will be of interest. Journalist will be quizzing his ‘Brexit / Bremain’ views. The Manufacturing sector continues to come under scrutiny output is still less than 20 years ago.

In other news Oil had a strong day yesterday up 3.5%, as output has declined to 8.8mio barrels a day the lowest level since September 2014, stockpiles fell 3.4mio barrels.

And finally Chelsea have ended their kit deal with Adidas six years early or have Adidas ended the deal early, who next? Under Armour, Nike, Puma and New balance are all believed to be interested. Google ban pay loans ads.

                                                                                                                (Cons)   (Prev)

09:00     EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)                                 0.0%      -0.8%

09:00     EUR Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)                                     1.1%      0.8%

11:00     GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility (May)                                   £375B    £375B

11:00     GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (May 12)                               0.5%      0.5%

11:00     GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

11:00     GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged                                                 9:9

11:00     GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut                                                                 0:0

11:00     GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike                                                               0:0

11:00     GBP Bank of England Minutes Report

11:45     GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech

12:30     USD Initial Jobless Claims (May 6)                                              270K      274K

12:30     USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Apr 29)                                  2.120M 2.121M

12:30     USD Import Price Index (YoY) (Apr)                                                          -6.2%

12:30     USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Apr)                                       0.1%      0.0%

12:30     USD Export Price Index (YoY) (Apr)                                                           -6.1%

12:30     USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr)                                       0.5%      0.2%

12:30     CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (Mar)                                             1.8%

12:30     CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Mar)                         0.1%      0.2%

14:30     USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change (May 6)                                       68B

15:45     USD Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren Speech

17:00     USD 30-Year Bond Auction                                                                           2.596%

17:30     USD Fed's George Speech

Have a great day

Anish S. Lal – VP Sales

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

Risk Warning

Trading on margin (spread betting, CFDs and FX) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.  The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.  Before deciding to trade your live account, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.  You could lose more than your initial investment and should not trade with funds you cannot afford to lose.  You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Gold & Platinum Shining In 2016!

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Gold has rallied almost 17% this year and most analysts are looking at the Metals markets heading higher, spear headed by the Yellow Metal.

So what has been the key driver of Gold this year? Well, Monetary Policy in US. If we look back at last year one of the reason Gold struggle to rally is because it was cautious about the rate hike.

This year, the drivers have changed. Looking at the Financial Market & Global Economy as a whole. After last months FED meeting we saw Gold getting a lift, upon the cautious dovish notes.  We also saw that China Gold imports were lower recently and heavy restocking, especially ahead of the New Year (Jan - heading into February).






 












So what is the cap then on the upside? Well, as Gold prices rally quickly the downside range can also be greater. Hence why if we saw a huge spike up to $1300 it could be bad for the market. However, if we see prices correcting at these levels (as well as the physical market adjusting) and the market coming into the right support - this could provide for a much more sustained move higher.

Another interesting market... Platinum. 

Platinum flirting with 1,000 per ounce, after a 5 year pressured market and that has not been enough to lift prices at all. The underlying stocks have also been quite high with supply growing also. However, 2016 looks like the year we will see XPTUSD start to base around the 1,000 per ounce mark and prices should be lifted from here.

There is also a strong fundamental reasoning for this sustained move higher. Firstly, South Africa (accounting for 80% of the World's Platinum) and their wage negotiations, which will be very significant. From this, we should see more producer discipline and cut backs in supply growth, this should lift in investor sentiment.   Most of the Rand volatility should also support this wage case.

Secondly, the Jewelry market - which was incredibly weak last year.. although the price elasticity has come back into play this year offering a greater floor for prices.

As always. Trade Smarter

Anish8FX@Atom8.com

The UK Budget 16 March 2016 12:30 GMT

UK Budget... What to expect? 

Scheduled for 12:30 GMT, this will be Chancellor George Osborne’s eighth budget. Having set himself a target of achieving a surplus by 2019-20 , sluggish growth since November could mean more spending cuts and tax rises. His statement comes with two months to go before the UK votes on its EU membership. The government is campaigning to remain in the EU, and the chancellor will be keen to avoid antagonizing either side in the debate with his announcements.

WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW

A fresh round of government spending cuts

Osborne warned over the weekend that a slowdown in global growth would lead to further fiscal tightening, saying he would use the Budget to slash 50p in every £100 the government spends by the end of the decade, or around £4bn, from the Treasury’s balance sheet.

More than £300m in funding for Crossrail 2 and HS3.

Osborne will use the Budget to commit to more than £300m in new infrastructure spending, including £80m to fund the development of plans for Crossrail 2 and £60m to draw up plans to introduce high-speed rail in the north. In a major move for London transport, the chancellor will also say for the first time that Crossrail 2 is a “priority scheme” and commit to introduce a Crossrail 2 Bill by the end of the parliament.

A green light for driverless cars on Britain’s motorways

The chancellor is due to announce the first trials of driverless cars on British motorways and vow to spend £15m creating a “Connected Corridor” from London to Dover to help driverless cars communicate wirelessly with existing infrastructure.

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN

Another hike in the insurance premium tax (IPT)

The AA warned over the weekend that the chancellor is considering raising the basic rate of insurance premium tax (IPT) from 9.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent. Just last November, Osborne increased the basic rate of IPT from 6 to 9.5 per cent – meaning that the stealth tax on more than 50m motor, home, medical and pet insurance premiums could be set to double in less than six months.

The first increase in fuel duty in five years

Osborne froze fuel duty in 2011, and given persistently low oil prices and the large amount an increase in the tax could net for the Treasury – an extra 2p of duty would bring in about £1bn – many believe the chancellor may announce a rise in the Budget. But the move would prove unpopular, with backbencher MPs from multiple parties opposing any increase.

An income tax break for middle and higher earners

Osborne is reportedly looking at increasing the amount people have to earn before they start paying the higher 40p tax rate to £43,000, from the current threshold of £42,385. The chancellor could also slash the top rate of tax from 45p to 40p, which would benefit people earning more than £150,000 a year.

Higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and other vices

Brewers are betting on another 1p to be taken off beer duty, but Osborne is said to be looking at increasing taxes on alcohol, as well as imposing a minimum tax on cigarettes.

CALLS FROM THE TRADING FLOOR - BUY GOLD!

Ladies & Gentlemen

After a four-year slide, the price of Gold has nowhere to go but higher and many investors are starting to agree. The case for the "safe-haven" was further assured today, as China's manufacturing data showed a contraction.

For the majority of the Commodity markets, January was another bad month in a long bear-market cycle - apart from Gold. Gold rallied 5% in Jan, the best monthly gain in a year.  

Turmoil in Chinese markets (with the view of a potential Global Sell-Off), Oil price uncertainties and a slowing US growth has tickled Investors demand for the traditional safe-haven asset. Again, their remains a high chance the FED will hold off on further interest rate rises this year adds to the attraction for the yellow metal. 

There is really no sign of a re-surge in inflation and this has also been a large factor to Golds rise and this relationship goes back to the 1980's. However, what is interesting is that through the last 12 month Gold slide, we have had China, Russia and India continuing to purchase Gold (about 55% more in 2015) - but then why did not this affect the Price? It seems investors are more focused on Financial Assets & The state of the US Economy rather than Countries Gold holdings. 

James Cordier, CEO of a US based Options firm said "With stock markets looking to crash all over the worlds and the US economy growing slowly, nothing is pointing to rate hikes and that is why Gold will continue to rally" . 

However, as mentioned in posts prior - it is important to note that Gold does not pay a coupon like other competing assets, although the price elasticity (over the last 5 years) seems to have drawn Investors (especially Central Banks, like China, Russia and India) towards the Bullion. 

For the coming weeks, months / Central bankers like Kuroda and Draghi have key speeches scheduled (as well as NFP this week) which could further spur the rally in Gold as the consensus is for further tightening and talks of Negative interest rates and more uncertainty.  

As always, Trade Smarter

Anish @Anish8Fx