The FX Stories of 2015

Ladies and Gentlemen,

As the year comes to a close here, I would like to reflect on the performance of all the major currencies.

This is a good opportunity to look at the best and worst performers of 2015 against the USD.

Returns ag $	2015
Brazilian Real	-31.22%
South African Rand	-24.95%
Canadian Dollar	-16.21%
Norwegian Krone	-14.86%
Mexican Peso	-14.70%
New Zealand Dollar	-12.01%
Australian Dollar	-10.91%
Euro	-9.64%
British Pound	-4.89%
Japanese Yen	-0.57%
Swiss Franc	0.30%

The worst performer has been the Brazilian Real, will this change as Rio hosts the Olympics in 2016?

The best performer has been CHF, is this desired by the SNB?

There is a lot to think about and I  would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your business and wish you a healthy, happy and prosperous 2016.

Kind regards

 Anish S. Lal 

The 2015 FED Finale!

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Countdown to ‘Lift Off’ begins.

Tomorrow interest rates are going to rise in the US for the first time since June 2006.

To put this into perspective a high percentage of my esteemed colleagues have never seen a US rate rise in their careers, sadly I have.

In recent weeks the term ‘Dovish Tightening’ has been talked about in the media. The US economy is close to full employment, the time is right for a quarter-point rise and has been telegraphed to the market. The Fed does not want to shock the market and undermine it credibility. The impact on the economy, the dollar and the markets will be closely monitored.

Investors we will be paying particular attention to the communique trying to ascertain when the next hike will come after this month’s increase. How many hikes will there be in 2016, the range is anywhere from 2-4 and 67 basis points is priced into the one year market. This is in stark contrast to the other major central banks of the world. Will the message be ‘gradualism’ or ‘commitment’ to future rate hikes? Commitment is a very hawkish signal whilst gradualism is more of the data dependant approach. The gradualism camp will be looking for language suggesting that rates will remain below normal levels for some time to come. Any reference to ‘Equilibrium real rate’ the rate of interest compatible with full employment and stable inflation underpins the gradual approach.

The $ index has been under pressure during December, the gradualist approach is believed to be favoured by Janet Yellen, we opened the month above 100 and are now close to the 100 day and 200 day moving average at 96.90 and 96.72 respectively, going into this major event risk these support levels are very pivotal.

No matter what the outcome there is going to be a lot of activity into the year end and believe the festive period will be busier than normal.

It is not the holiday season yet.

Good Luck

Commodities Decay Boosting The USD - How Do I Trade This?

Ladies & Gentlemen,

This Commodity bloodbath continues with Oil falling below $40 and Iron Ore posting 2009 lows- The Mining Sector is feeling the heat today, with $BHP and $RIO posting losses of 5-6%.

Investors are now questioning how long could this slump actually last for? Will we be able to pick a bottom? Will Geo-Politics & Inflationary pressure continue to threaten the Economy? Will Chinese Demand pick up?... We edge closer to the FED meeting on December 17th for the next Market Correction/Continuation?

There is really no let-up in the onslaught of Commodities and these fears have been fairly priced into the FX landscape. The current commodity collapse we are seeing around the world is a big factor for FX Traders, especially when we focus on the "Commodity-Block" currencies : AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CADUSD & NOKSEK.

The Aussie Dollar short is an extremely interesting trade to look at, especially as Iron Ore is the biggest export from Australia - we find the AUDUSD trading above 72 cents and some could look at this level as being overvalued, especially against a resurgent USD.  This is my top trade for this month :

Will we ever see what the Real Economy looks like? What about the inflation story? .. As a start, we have to look at the FED & the BOE, both expecting to hike and Investors through the course of 2015 have been continuously disappointed waiting for the hike. However, we are now getting clearer guidance of a December Hike from FED members and I don't think it will derail the FED tightening cycle but what it may do now... is put more pressure on other Central Banks to ease further, like the ECB & the "Commodity Block" Banks, like the RBA, RBC...etc.

The USD dynamics are dominating other currencies and Policy divergences created from easing derived from the FED disappointment... The USD only looks to further drive the next few years and investors are slowly migrating towards this train of thought, rather than trading the Euro or Yen weakness as a primary mover.

So will the USD continue to rally? - Yes... Certainly, yes! I think we will see parity by Q3 2016. Will there be more from Draghi? Well, potentially also yes! He will probably look to work his way through his monetary policy toolbook - battling inflation. Eurozone growth is actually ok, but inflation is the key problem and if Inflation expectations continue to remain low (helped by lower Oil prices) this will put more pressure on Draghi to do something more.

Best of luck guys!

Anish8FX@Atom8.com

Draghi's ECB Dilemma

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Tomorrow, Thursday 3^rd December at 12.45 GMT the ECB make a rate announcement and then at 13:30 GMT hold a press conference.

These events are eagerly anticipated as changes to both ECB policy and the Inflation outlook are expected.

On the Policy front the changes that could take place to interest rates are outlined below:-

(Source Bloomberg)

	Consensus	Prior	Low	High
Deposit Finance Rate	-0.30%	-0.20%	-0.45%	-0.20%
Refinancing Rate	0.05%	0.05%	0.00%	0.05%
Marginal Lending facility	0.30%	0.30%	0.10%	0.40%

On the Quantitative Easing front the options are:-

• 1)      Size extension, a larger amount each month.
• 2)      Time extension, buying the same amount for a longer period.
• 3)      Both of the above

Now that the Policy options have been set out, let’s look at the inflation outlook. Presently 11 member countries have negative CPI inflation these are Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. We would like to draw your attention to a recent Mario Draghi Statement “we will do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible.” Recent concerns are that households have started to adopt a disinflationary mind-set and this is clearly something that policymakers want to avoid.

As you can see there are a lot of possibility and there has been a lot of speculation. Reuters put out an article on the 25^th November detailing a “two tiered” depo rate as a policy option. At the October Meeting Mario Draghi made it very clear that the degree of monetary policy accommodation would need to be reassessed in December, this statement was further backed up in a speech he made on 20^th November “If the General Council conclude that the balance of risks to our medium term price stability objective is skewed to the downside we will act by using all the instruments available within our mandate”. Reiterating that the asset purchase programme is powerful and flexible instrument that can be adjusted in terms of size, composition or duration to achieve a more expansionary stance.

In the Q&A session Draghi indicated that a further cut to the depo rate was one of the measures for consideration.

I continue to believe that Mario Draghi will maintain his bearish stance and the there is a possibility of further forward guidance and the distinct possibility of a rate cut and more QE, we prefer to sell rallies in EUR/USD and would like to highlight the divergence in rhetoric from the ECB compared to the Federal Reserve. Other recent bearish EUR stories include the reduction in weightings that EUR holds in the new IMF Special Drawing Requirements (SDR). This is a session that should be closely watched.

Good Luck 

Anish8FX

The Commodity Bloodbath

Ladies & Gentlemen,

As we begin to make sense of the shocking lows in Commodities across the board, we must turn our eyes onto the Macro picture to find reasoning for the short-term and also look to consider the worst-cases for the coming years.

The "Demand-Destruction" story begins in China. The Chinese Economy is slowing down and the demand for commodities forming from the Chinese manufacturing sector is also on it's way down south - with the fall led by Material/Energy companies in the Asia Pacific (falling this year circa 13%).    This Market slump has shown the World how strong the in-elasticity of demand on price from China actually is.

Key Chart 1

Copper is trading at 6-year lows (chart below) & Nickel (the biggest loser on the LME) is at 12-year lows.

Key Chart 2

$BHP & $RIO all fell yesterday to 10-year lows as producers continued to slump across the global equities amid the bloodbath. $BHP is now looking at the prospect of having its credit rating downgraded in the next 12 months in response to further possible falls in Iron Ore & Oil prices. 

Another major reason behind the Commodity-glut is due to the Market concerns about further USD strength, starting with the first hike in December. Countries who do not use the USD as their primary currency will feel further heat as their currency begins to weaken amid prospective USD rallies. This will then make is cheaper to produce and create further over-supplies!

Will OPEC do anything about the Over-Supply in Oil? Well, further to comments made by the Saudi's yesterday - they are keen to work with other OPEC countries in stabilizing the market - however the facts remain & there is no quick fix! We will find out more on Dec 4th, when the OPEC heads all get together.... Meanwhile, the Glut continues as people talk about the biggest decline since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Can we really find a bottom?.. Let's take it back a notch. If we look at some charts, we can see stability over the last few weeks. and it is important to remember that the Commodity business is extremely cash intensive and producers will not be looking to cut supply but rather costs. Major Commodity producers still need the revenue.

I personally think, the actual effect of this fall will truly depend on how fast the US Economy can accelerate & how long the FED Rate Hike cycle will last for.

Take out your 3D Glasses and watch the rest of 2015 unfold.

Best of luck

Anish8FX @Atom8.com www.atom8.com

The 2015 Oil Price Conundrum

Ladies & Gentlemen, 

Over the past year Oil has "started" its biggest price decline since the Financial Crisis. Today the price of Oil went below $40.00 and the Markets are currently sitting on this level (3 month low), to me - waiting only for the next break lower. This move lower was supported by yesterdays data from the US showing that Crude Stock Piles have been expanding for the past 8 weeks now. 

Here is where the trouble lies.. Demand is at record highs, especially from India and is expected to rise by 1 million barrels per day every year in this decade. But the issue is with Supply. The Supply-side is controlling the Market and it does not seem to be slowing! We have way too much Oil & OPEC led by Saudi Arabia have been more focused on targeting Market share, rather than price stability. 

How much Supply do we actually have? Well have a look at the Chart below and you can see from the "Surveillance Map" the Orange Line mapping out 530 km (about 3 billion barrels of oil). If you were to put these in Oil Tankers and line them up together, that is the route... From London to the south of Glasgow. 

Chart of the Day

Source : @JavierBias2

What about Geo-Politics? Well the Oil prices spiked up as an immediate reaction from the Paris attacks. To me, that could just be a panic trade and the Fundamentals are clearly running the Oil Market here. Syria, in reality is not a big Oil producer but is in the neighborhood. I think you would need to see a real Geo-political shock in a large Oil producing country to have a sustained effect on Oil Prices. 

Could we see $30? - Yes!  I think the markets will tick away to $30 during the course of 2016 and perhaps even lower into 2017. Ultimately, it is the refiners that buy the Crude Oil and if they are not making any money anymore... heading into winter... they want to keep their margins growing. They would definitely be in for a hard time for the next few years to come. 

As always, Trade smarter. 

Anish8FX @Atom8.com

The Future Is Bright - The Future Is Silver!

Ladies & Gentlemen, 

As we tick closer to "Lift-Off" from the FED, the Precious Metals continue to remain cursed by the USD bulls. But what will happen after the initial FED fiasco? Will the Markets quickly learn to appreciate reality of US Debt? Will investors flock into the Metals?... I'm not too sure, but I do make a good case to stay long Silver (XAGUSD) for the next 5-10 years. 

Commissioned from Mr. Hague (SocGen), he has created a propriety model on measuring a move in the commodities in relation to Macro factors, the Strength of the USD, Interest Rates & Market Fundamental (Variables) & from his analysis, it is clear that Fundamentals have taken a back-seat over the past 12 months. The Macro variables are the driving force behind the Markets, covering the environment for Risk Attitude, the Volatility Index & Equities.... This is what (according to Mr. Hague) is moving Silver (chart below): 

Over the past 2-3 years, Silver has been trading more like Gold & recent moves have been primarily driven by the strong USD and all-round been a strong head-wind for the Metals.  With Silver being 60% Demand driven, more for Industrial uses (mainly Electronics).. we begin to see Silver evolve from a Precious Metal to a Base Metal. 

The long-term outlook for Silver is bright, and a big part could be due to the anticipated exponential use of Solar. According to the IEA's growth forecasts (on a mass scale) over the next 5-years, they would be using nearly 1 Billion ounces of Silver! 

This bodes very well for Investors looking at today's chart, as you finally have (after 12-13 years) Silver Supply declining, especially when you think about the 2011 peak. The longer term Demand sets to pick up and it looks to be setting itself up for a Constructive move. 

Silver is absolutely everywhere! In your computers, in your phones... & as Emerging Market demand picks up over the next 10 years for Electronics, only naturally should this Market increase in value. 

So Anish, how do you see the Market shaping for the end of the year?... Well there is not much left for this year as we remain merciful to the FED's hiking plans but I do expect Fundamentals adding more promise to the Metals market in the Longer term & hope to prove the doubters wrong, as I am personally a big fan of Silver. 

Best of Luck

Anish8FX @ Atom8.Com 

How To Make A Camel Vomit Gold

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

Has Gold lost it's shine? Gold traded near a 5-year low as investors continued to short bullion-backed equities pricing in expectations for the US to increase interest rates this year, further Rusting the Metals Market. 

Gold is heading for a thirds year on year decline as investors now brace themselves for a first interest rate increase since 2006 and according to the "theory" - Higher Rates = Less competitive metals. But Why? It is simple, as the Metals offer no dividend, hence investors naturally flock to other assets that pay interest or offer dividends.

Can we head below $1000?
(Figure Below) Source : CNBC

What is now known as the "Vomiting Camel" (from the formation of the two humps [yearly highs]) - we now have the camel resting on a rhombus, indicating that a break below current levels =  free-fall! 

The Splat Zone indicated on the char signals towards the $700-$800 for possible areas that Gold could fall into post December hikes. 

But what about Central Banks, The Russians & Chinese - are they still buying? - Yes! Gold purchasing (And Demand) is at record highs, as both Russia and China still maintain a policy to hedge against their currency & they will probably remain net buyers. China for example, added an extra 14 tons in October. 

So what happened to Economics? Well, we have to remember that XAU is backed by the USD and experts point to a "Bear-Market" cycle driven by the FED. But in my view, if we do see a hit of $700-$800 we could see a spark in the bulls.

Absolutely a fascinating time to be watching the markets. 

Trade Smarter,

Anish8FX@Atom8.com

Will 2016 Mark The Fall Of The Emerging Markets?

Ladies & Gentlemen, 

Brace yourself for a complete change in dynamics for 2016 and of course, the FED hiking cycle will become the catalyst. 

So should I still stay long the USD in 2016? Well in theory - Yes! In practice however, as the FED raises interest rates the USD will strengthen but these persistent increases (during the proposed cycle) will worry investors - especially for companies with Overseas Investment & for Industrial corporates (with the continued decline of commodities). It could be very expensive! 

A stronger USD now becomes a touchy situation. Mainly because the majority of Emerging Market Countries hold USD debt and this puts a stranglehold on the USD rallies. The probabilities of larger outflows from Countries like China, India is likely and will be the epicentre of pressure. It will be interesting to see how these Push/Pull Economic factors react next year.. Will it help their continued debt? 

The stage for 2016 has been set. 

China is an almost perfect author to this story. With recent trade numbers declining (6.9% yoy) and a staggering 18.8% decline in imports - Other Asian nations who once so heavily relied on China could now look elsewhere.  As the commodity boom slows, the GDP growth required for China to maintain its growth pattern could also fall off the charts! Instead we see a Global Deflationary Threat.

How will the USD react to each FED Rate Hike? - Looking at the past 11 Rate Cycles and in particular more recently when the FED moved from neutral to tightening, the USD fell 7% and to tell the way the USD could react now - one would have to look at the yield curves. Whenever it has been steep (and right now it is steep) it falls over double digits! But again, that would also depend on the forecasted tightening cycle... but really how long could it be? 

What about the Equity Markets? You want to be really focusing on Industrial, Tech & Energy stocks, because they will benefit from the inflationary cycle of the US Economy. But really does the public trust equities anymore? There are currently huge disparities in the major US indexes as during the past 5 years the Public have not really put any money into the equities, it has all been primarily driven by the FED & a lot of these position builders could effectively price in the first hike. 

Next stop... December 17. 

Trade Smarter
Anish8FX @ Atom8.com 

The Exaggerated Importance Of Today's NFP

Ladies & Gentlemen, 

One piece of Data that the Markets have been hanging onto (for the last fortnight now) is today's US Jobs Report. But has the Data release been overblown? Will this Data release really decide if the FED will hike in December or not? 

I think it is bizzare that we come to this point, after such a long time of FED Rate Hike talk and in fairness, we should of really started hiking back in September. In fairness to the FED, they have been transparent and the bar has been pushed lower - if yesterday's ADP result was considerably weaker the Markets would of considered changing direction, but it remains firm.

In my view, anything above 142K will be enough. My call is for 230K plus, but Markets may be focused on revisions, as it is about the "Nirvana" of finding a "Full Employment" level & Yellen more recently has stated that the "Excess" employment number has been diminished. 

So how strong is the USD? Well if you look at the Labor Participation Rate, which points to the strength of an Economy it has not really been up to par. However, these could come down to more structural demographic issues, which the FED could not really be judged on... but more-so on the "Excess capacity" of the market. 

The fact is the USD is on a tear and investors are still building more positions.. Looking at the chart, don't really see any stop in the way? Especially as Consumer Spending (which makes up 70% of GDP) is on the rise & this is also translated into incomes. The problem may come from mixed data, especially on the Manufacturing side, but if you strip this out the USD is the most bullish I have ever seen.

Best of luck today

Anish8FX @ Atom8.com

The "Long $" Play Over The Medium Term

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Tomorrow at 13:30 GMT we get the October Non-Farm Payroll number, the September figure was a disappointing 142k. A bounce to 182k is the Bloomberg survey consensus.

The FOMC members believe the chance of ‘lift off’ in December is still ‘live’, needing a reason not to hike is the new sentiment.

Tomorrow will give us further insight into the decision making process on 16^th December.

The Fed has maintained that the appropriate time to raise rates is when the sustained improvement in the labour market is attained, combined with confidence that inflation will move back to its 2% target over the medium term. These are the exact words from the press on 28^th October ‘the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate’. The dual mandate of Fed has been talked about in previous Event Risk updates.

I see the divergence in Central Bank policy as an opportunity to express ‘Long $’ plays over the medium term.

$/Jpy sits above the 200 day moving average at 121.10 and just below the 100 day moving average at 121.70, a daily close above 122 will see momentum accounts add to existing long positions. The first Friday of the month is always interesting.

Good Luck

Anish8FX @Atom8.Com

Still Holding My Gold Shorts

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

The Gold Market has been subject to huge downward pressures amid the timing of the FED's rate hike decisions. Gold now again hovers at 1-month lows, coming of the back of the biggest 4-day losing streak since September 2013 - falling 5 consecutive quarters. 


But even with soaring demand from Asia, why are the Markets so reliant on the FED decision? Well if the FED do increase rates, nobody wants stock hold bonds, because they will pay lower coupons than newer bonds... and turning to Gold - that asset pays no Coupon at all! The more hawkish the FED remain, the worse the impact on the Gold price. Not forgetting that Gold is still priced against USD.  

This close relationship was marked again today by this mornings rally to $1120 and was completely sold off and there are even more headwinds/failures in recent breaks to the upside. $1075 was the recent bottom and this is not far our of reach. I don't think we will see a reversal anytime soon to the upside. 

Figure below from Atom8's MT4 Terminal (XAUUSD.v) - Gold Staying Down 

When will we see a reveral? Here's hoping Ms Yellen gives some more indication tonight about future direction of the Hiking Cycle. Perhaps all that is needed for the Metals is some clarity, then we can move on & up! Theoretically, the FED could continue to hike rates up to infinity and that would cause USD weakness. Given historical trends, Gold could remain the preferred safe-haven asset & may well return back to $1400-1500 in the next few years. 

Best of Luck
Anish8FX @ Atom8.com 

How Do I Trade The FED Rate Hikes?

Ladies and Gentlemen,

After a surge in Bitcoin prices, more doubts grow about the stability & long-term value of the USD. Many Economists & Analysts believe the USD to be heavily over-valued & have been calling a reversal in the USD for over 2 years now, but the brute force that is QE has only but stood in the way of purists.

Figure : DXY over last 2 years







Let's first turn our eyes to the Euro and as it currently hovers around the 1.10 mark, as the FED breathes more clarity over the coming months (heading into early 2016) - many Traders are calling for 1.15-1.16 as the "Fair-Value Equilibrium". However, until then we could still stay on the weaker side of 1.10, as Draghi continues to seemingly over-deliver on expectations... But could we really go to parity or lower? - To be honest, there is nothing magic here! When you throw in lots of numbers, taking into account coherent Econometric studies (interest rate differentials, relative to the size of the Eurozone's balance sheets) - you can't really go near numbers close to parity.

What about the FED? The FED has a mandate which is not related to the FX Market whatsoever, and this is one of the main arguments from more sophisticated FX watchers (in the short-run at least). Since the first Quarter of this year, the rates market has remained completely flat but the USD has only but rocketed (more so since April)... The main question beckons.. Will the FED pull the trigger in December or not? If yes, it would only be by 25 basis points & would that really cause a huge impact?.. I don't think so.

Reality Check again! The USD is overvalued and what the FX Trader should be wary of is the Hiking Cycle that the FED will signal. In order to really justify the USD at current levels, they would need to plot an aggressive hiking path. We could actually see another 150-175 basis points over the next few years.... & that would really hurt! Again, this depends on a variety of Domestic/External factors.. (as well as the price of Oil).. A difficult one to predict now.
                                                                                       

So what do I trade? Well I would look at Cable. The Market expectations are that the BOE are maybe 9-12 months away for changing pricing, and if you compare this to the FED/ECB outlook, the "time-gap" is extremely stretched. If you look back in time, since the inception of the Bank Of England as n independent Central Bank, there has never been such a significantly wide time gap between movements in the FED to a change in the BOE. Two things to look at here, the Fundamentals & what the Market has already priced in. I do believe (as per the graph above) 1.70 to be fair value for £/$.

Looking at the Markets Carney has a responsibility for bringing the market back in and delivering on his mandate. He sees risk moving way too much against him and the Market seems to remain complacent.

End of the day! USD is over-valued and has been for many months. Look at Cable & it should be grinding higher and the main view on USD is that the over-evaluation will also slowly cause other Central Banks to ease of.

Best of luck

Anish8FX @ Atom8.Com

As Australia drops knights and dames from their honours system the other topical question is will the RBA drop interest rates?

The decision takes place tomorrow at 03.30 London time. Out of 30 economist polled by Bloomberg 40% of economists are looking for a 25 basis point cut from 2% to 1.75% Recently the CPI data has been weak and there have been concerns about Chinese demand for natural resources resulting in a sluggish domestic mining sector.

On the other hand local banks have recently hiked residential mortgage rates to cool an overheated housing market and to recoup the cost of increased capital requirements

I am adopting the ‘wait and see approach’ towards the RBA believing that any drop in the Aud/Nzd cross is a buying opportunity from the present 1.0550 level. Fundamental rate spreads between the two countries are arguing for this pairing to be trading closer to the 1.10 than parity level.  Last week the RBNZ was dovish with an explicit easing bias repeated, “Some further reduction in the OCR seems likely”.

There is a lot of data this week, the RBA tonight, the BOE on Thursday and then the NFP on Friday

Good Luck

Anish S. Lal @anish8fx

FX & Precious Metals, Atom8 Financial Services LLP

2nd Floor, Centenary House, Palliser Road, London W14 9EQ, UK

T: +44(0)20 3405 3910 | M: +44 (0)7983701816 | anish.lal@atom8.com | www.atom8.com

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The Saudi Spending Phenomenon - Will It Ever Stop?

Ladies & Gentlemen,

All Market eyes have been eyeing up Oil Prices, some are calling a further slump in 2016 and others are a bit more optimistic (seeking the $50 mark). However, with these lower prices, how has the World's biggest Oil player reacted & will it really hurt the Saudi Economy?

You would of actually never of guessed there to be an Oil slump from the shine of the Saudi economy and that is no accident, it is Saudi (well-planned) policies in action. The wealth from the Oil revenues has been shared and the public have firmly supported the Al Saud family, even as turmoil beckons on the horizon.

The IMF predicts that within 5 years, the Kingdom will run out of Financial Assets... But is that really true (raised eyebrow)? In theory, if they continue to spend at the rate they are & Oil prices remain low, then yes! However, they currently stand at a (Positive) 100% net cash : GDP ratio & if you look at a Country like Japan, who's net:GDP is -200%, I begin to differ with the IMF. Saudi literally are operating with no debt.

figure : Bloomberg source

Can this be protected for the Future? What if Oil prices continue to fall? I think you will start to see Saudi Arabia slowly decrease their heavy military contracts & begin opening their Economy up to foreign investment, by way of issuing Government debt or opening investment into Saudi stocks. More recently, the Saudi government to pull in about $70bn from Equity markets to begin adding more liquidity within their own markets -  "Welcome world to the Tadawul".

We could also see (like Qatar) a higher increase in Western Property purchases... Again another indication for potentially more spending.

Saudi issuing Debt? Really? How friendly would that be? Honestly speaking (ok - be careful here Anish #whips...) The country has been caged about opening it's Markets to the World and if done, would be extremely gradual, as they drift away from traditions. Most Governments generally support their Economy, by way of tax receipts.
However, over the past 3-4 decades, Saudi has been funded with Oil receipts.

Reality Check.. Oil still costs $3 to get out of the ground and with current production levels, Saudi are still generating $300-400bn from Oil revenues alone (at least)!

It looks like the Saudi powerhouse is only going to get stronger, especially as Investors from around Asia flock in. The next 5-10 years will be critical for the Kingdom, to really impose its strength as the World's largest Economy, alongside China.

Trade Smarter & Best of Luck for the week ahead.

Best wishes
Anish @ Atom8FX

Kuroda's Economic Armageddon

Ladies & Gentlemen

All market eyes will be focused  on Japan tomorrow, as they release updated inflation forecasts. Essentially, this is an indicator of when, or if, the bank;s board members see Japan reaching their inflation target of 2% and markets are expecting the BOJ to become even more engaged in search of the 2%. The Markets over the past few weeks have priced in more stimulus, especially with the recent Nikkei gains.

Kuroda has done an excellent job in albeit trying circumstances, elevating inflation expectations in an economy that has had actually 0 inflation in the last 20 years. 

Just cast your mind back to 2 years ago when the USDJPY was trading around 80 and now trading around 120 & Nikkei at 8,000 & now nearly 20,000 - really putting QE into Economic action - essentially reflating the risk/assets base. But still have a lot more positive inflation to go up to 2%.  However, could we really see the BOJ wanting to weaken the Yen further? At the moment Japan is still very cheap & the major corporates have been rubbing their hands in Green for the past few years now - on the flip/side the small/medium companies have been feeling the pinch with greater import costs. In addition, policy markers are also adjusting for (and looking forward to) lower a base of lower oil prices, but again adding more stimulus could be more problematic in the longer term.

In my view, the decision tomorrow is more likely to be felt within the Equity Markets as Kuroda focuses on building a significant amount of more wealth into the Nikkei and their is a high conviction level from traders that something will happen - Especially as Japan owns more than half of the nations ETFs (An important Abenomics Battleground) - But really where does true Economic Theory come into play here? Central Banks buying up ETFs to promote more "risk-taking activity in the Economy"... Overall, Japan has a very important lesson that they have probably been mislearning and it's underlying issues could be 1 of 2 things... either Deflation or is it because they failed to act like the US did in the 90s.

As Buffet once said"We are all Market Vigilantes" So what is the end game for the BOJ? Does AbeNomics fail trying to approach a 2% target that they may not ever hit. We face an absolute Economic Armageddon. In my view, a lot of Japanese pride on the line.

Keep your eyes peeled & fingers on the right side of the trigger!

Best of luck
Anish @ Atom8.com

Could Monetary Policy Divergence cause EURUSD to hit parity by December?

Ladies & Gentlemen, 

We have heard it over and over again & now it is crunch time, where Economic theories come into practice and the Markets click to the tune of the Central Bank Announcements. 

Here is what ING predicted at the start of 2015 and low & behold how the year has turned out to map  the below 

Over the last 12 months the Markets have remained bearish and the EURUSD has fallen from 1.40 to 1.05.. but why?  And the concept is pretty simple to understand, as the FED stop QE at the same time of the ECB continuing their QE policies. This is known in the Markets as a "Divergence in Monetary Policy" and as the Markets price in their expectations of a FED non-hike, the divergence is set to continue... Implicating parity and if not parity, then sub 1.00. 

Vamvakidis, head of G10 Strategy at Bank Of America calls for EURUSD to hit parity by December 15 and also the USDJPY to hit 125. 

What needs to happen for EUR parity? Well, in order for this prediction to hold - the divergence needs to move further. If we get more QE by the ECB in December and the FED does not hike (which is very ikely) we could easily see parity. But the FED hike is a matter of time and could be as early as Jan 2016. The equilibrium of the EURUSD cross is around 1.15, however, the Euro zone still has a significantly large Output Gap compared to the US & if the ECB announces an "open ended" (or Infinity based QE) - that could stir up a recipe for disaster - as the Bears would then look to push down to 0.75. 

How do I trade these markets? Volatility remains high and it is mainly the bears driving the markets, supported by the facts pushed from Central Bank data this month. Looking at the bigger picture, the FED will eventually look to hike rates but more than likely, it will not be until next year - even though Domestic data has improved in the US, I would not expect anything significant this week. Keep your eyes on the data A balance between Domestic Developments & External Developments is key for the FEDs decision & once we do see the hike... the bad news will hit hard & remain bad news! 

Can I Jump on The Karoda Vs Draghi Trade? The international expectation is for more BOJ easing and if you look at the currently inflation rate in Japan, the BOJ should actually be doing more. The USDJPY currently is not that strong, either not that weak. However, it would be ideal to remain long the volatility as no matter what happens USDJPY will move! 

I wish you the best of luck with your Trades & hope you keep your fingers on the right side of your mouse triggers! 

Anish @ Atom8.com 

Central Bank Rule on Settlement Day

Good morning,

Central bank activity will dominate the headlines today

We have the three central banks making rates decisions, will they all remain unchanged?

08:30 GMT          Swedish Riksbank Rate Decision. Rates expected unchanged at -0.35%

18:00 GMT          US FOMC Expected to keep rates on hold at +0.25%

20:00 GMT          New Zealand RBNZ expected to keep rates on hold at +2.75%

We also have the Swedish Monetary Policy report at 08:30

It is also important to note that there is no press conference following the release from the Fed

Away from central bank activity we have 

07:45 GMT          French Oct Consumer Confidence expected unchanged at 97.0

09:00 GMT          Italian Oct Consumer Confidence. Exp 112.2 after 112.7 previously

                                Italian Oct Business Confidence. Exp 103.9 after 104.2 previously

As it is spot settlement month end I expect it to be a busy day for many reasons.

Have great day

The Vicious Cycle Of Oil

Ladies & Gentlemen

Oil once more trades at a near 2-month low and as vicious as it has been, the oil price collapsing cycle does not look to be over just yet. However, large institutions and Central Banks further seek a longer period of stability, especially in the eyes of the Bond Markets.

The US are still heavily over-supplied and refineries continue to close down, due to mounting costs  from a alack of productivity. The big players are still looking at holding sub $50 and hedging their risk with the Futures Markets... These "players" may be the ones the Central Banks turn to in the near future to assist in the un-cuffing of this downward spiral.

OPEC have been heavily pressured by Venezuela (Country with the World's largest known Oil reserves) to do something about the Oil price and have been supported by one of Africa's biggest Oil producer, Algeria. Contrary to views from the Gulf who are welcoming the lower prices, seeing it as a chance to reform & these contrast of views continue to bear onto a larger Geo-Political issue. But how big is this issue?

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest Oil mover has been doing things recently, that in the last 30 years have been unimaginable ;
1. Withdrawing money from overseas;
2. Delaying contract payments; and
3. Taxing lands.

So how does the Market quantify these issues?.. Let's pause for a second and cast our mind backs to mid 2007 when the Oil price hit $145.00 per barrel and the Gulf generated more money that they knew what to do with & the fact remains that Saudi's Debt:GDP ratio is still less than 2% and in the next 10 years is estimated to stay below 7%... The main Gulf states could actually live comfortably for several years from these revenues built.  So contrary to the "Geo-Politics" - Investors are more focused on the supply-side issues and may be more keen to ignore the political nature surrounding the MENA regions.

Storage is still reaching tank-tops and if this trend continues, we may see for the first time in 20 years - oil investments declining for two consecutive years and this may be an indication for future oil markets.. as they look to continue their downward spiral.

Optimists still seek a bottoming level - looking at Iran supplies for next year to help boost $60+ for 2017 (perhaps a fascinating new dynamic for the near future), however the fundamentalists outlook is further lower to find a strong re balance in the market.

Best of luck

Anish

Urges to congress to act now!

Good Morning,

The day ahead looks like it will be a busy one, overnight Australia’s business confidence declined but New Zealand’s job ads rebounded in September.

In the US Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew urged Congress to act now to increase the US debt limit.

07:45     France Business Confidence 

                France Manufacturing Confidence for October

08:00     Spain Q3 Unemployment rate for 3Q. Expect it to fall to 21.89% from 22.37 % previously

09:30     UK Retail Sales

12:45     ECB Rate Decision – no changes expected – Refi to stay at 0.05% / Depo @ -0.20% and MLF @ +0.30%

13:30     Canada Retail Sales  

                US Chicago Fed National Activity Index 

                US Continuing Claims 

US Initial Jobless Claims

ECB’s Draghi news conference

15:00     Euro Zone Consumer Confidence for Oct 

US Existing Home Sales  

We wish you a good day

Event Risk - ECB Meeting

Ladies and Gentlemen,

 

This Thursday the European Central Bank meeting takes place on the Mediterranean island of Malta, there is strong belief that there will be hints at further fresh stimulus to ward off the threat of deflation in the press conference following the Governing Council congress at 14:30CET

 

Last month Eurozone inflation fell below 0% to -0.1% this is the first time since March. Presently the ECB is currently committed to buying €60bn of government and corporate bonds each month until September 2016. But as Ewald Nowotny, an ECB Policymaker, has been quoted as saying it is “quite obvious” that additional instruments would be needed, as the ECB is “clearly missing” its inflation target. It is not if, but when.

 

What tools are available to the ECB? The obvious answer is it could boost QE to €80bn a month and/or further extended the programme beyond next September 2016.

 

Will they announce further ECB Stimulus? We believe there will be hints but no action.

 

One of the consequences of the Fed delaying ‘lift off’ has been a strengthening €, this is an unwelcome development adding deflationary pressure.

 

We believe the tone to this meeting will be dovish a weakening currency is the other unquantifiable tool that can help the Eurozone

 

Good Luck

 

Anish Lal 

 

Atom8 Financial Services LLP www.atom8.com